Morning briefing: Euro is nearing again the support around 1.0900

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index above 102.50, looks bullish towards 104 and higher. The Euro is again nearing the support around 1.09. Need to see whether 1.09 holds or extends the fall further. The USDJPY and EURJPY, while above 146 and 161.50, have a fair chance of rising towards 150-152 and 164 respectively in the coming sessions. Aussie looks stable above 0.67 for now, but a further rise past 0.68-0.6850 will be needed to make the outlook bullish again. The pound either needs to rise past 1.31 or break below 1.30 to get further directional clarity. EURINR, below 92.50-92, looks bearish to 91. USDINR has a fair chance of testing 84.10/12 on the upside while sustaining above 83.90/80.

The US Treasury yields have risen and are poised at their resistance. A follow-through rise from here can see an extended rise. Thereafter the expected reversal can happen. The German yields are managing to sustain higher. The bias is positive. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the expected range. The bias is positive to break this range on the upside and rise eventually going forward.

The Dow Jones surged above 42,800 following strong Q3 earnings from major banks. The DAX has maintained bullishness above the support at 19,150 and climbed significantly above 19,300. In contrast, the Nifty remains weak, lacking momentum for an upward move. Need to watch price action near 24800-25000. Nikkei seems to sustain above 39,500. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite is trading well below its resistance at 3,300, hovering near its support zone of 3,200–3,180.

Brent & WTI need to break above $79 and $75 to see a rise towards $80-82 and $78 respectively in the near term. Else they can fall back to their respective support levels. Gold looks ranged between 2700-2620 for the near term until a breakout on either side takes place. Silver, Copper and Natural Gas can fall towards 30.5-30.0, 4.30-4.25 and 2.5 respectively in the near term.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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