Morning briefing: Euro is declining as expected and can soon test 1.1100

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has recovered well from the support around 100.50. Watch US GDP data release scheduled today. Euro is declining as expected and can soon test 1.11. USDJPY can fall back towards 142-140 in the near term below 145, while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164 for a while. The pound is holding well below our mentioned resistance of 1.3250 for now and is likely to fall towards 1.31 or lower. Aussie failed to sustain its rise past 0.68 and is currently moving within a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750. USDCNY can remain ranged within 7.12-7.18 region above 7.12. EURINR can fall back towards 93 in the coming sessions before attempting to rise back. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.75 -84.00 region for the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. The broader view is bearish and there is room to fall more from here. Any rise will be capped and short-lived. The German yields have turned down and resumed their downtrend. The bearish view remains intact. The 10Yr GoI is higher but stable. Resistances ahead can cap the upside and drag the yield lower again. The broader view remains bearish.

Dow Jones has fallen a bit but while above the support at 40800, view remains intact to see a rise towards 41800-42000. DAX has broken above its the resistance and while this break sustains, a further rise could be seen in the coming sessions. Nifty remains positive to target 25500 in the near term. Nikkei remains stuck in a narrow range but broader view is bullish to see a break on the upper end of the range. Shanghai has fallen below 2840 and can now fall towards 2800-2775.

Crude prices and Natural Gas are likely to trade sideways for a while. Gold, Silver and Copper fell sharply yesterday but have their immediate support levels, while above which, they can potentially rise towards 2600, 31.5 and 4.4 respectively.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850

EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold buyers hesitate amid holiday-thinned trading

Gold trades volatile, but within range, as US, China holidays-led thin trading exaggerates moves. The US Dollar extends range play into the US GDP week, with markets pricing at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Technically, Gold tests key support at $5,000; daily RSI still remains bullish.

Top Crypto Losers: Dogecoin, Zcash, Bonk – Meme and Privacy coins under pressure

Meme coins such as Dogecoin and Bonk, alongside the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), are leading the broader market losses over the last 24 hours. DOGE, ZEC, and BONK ended their three consecutive days of recovery with a sudden decline on Sunday, as crucial resistance levels capped the gains. Technically, the altcoins show downside risk, starting the week under pressure.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.