Morning briefing: EUR/USD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region

The DXY need to sustain above 97.50 to head towards 98.50 in the near term. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region. EURINR has declined but downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.71-0.69 region. Pound is coming off and a break below 1.36 if seen can take it towards 1.350-1.345 levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. Watch out for the ECB & the BOE meeting scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to remain stable. For now, the yields are stuck inside a range and are likely to remain intact for some more time. Eventually we expect the yields to make a bullish breakout of their range. German yields have come down. Immediate picture looks unclear. Need to see if the ECB meeting outcome today is providing any trigger to push the yields higher. The 10Yr GoI has come down further. It can dip to test its support and then reverse higher to resume the broader uptrend.

The Dow needs to break above 49600 to rise further to 50000-50200 while the DAX needs to sustain trade above 24500 to avoid any decline to 24000-23500. Nifty is holding above 25500 for now and has scope to eventually rise towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai has dipped today after closing above 4100 yesterday. While we expect a range of 4200-4050 to hold, any break below 4050 can take it down towards 3900.

Brent and WTI have moved up but remain range-bound below $70 and within $66–$61 respectively. Gold needs to hold above $5000 to resume the earlier rise, while silver has weakened and risks a fall towards $76–$74 unless $90 is cleared. Copper must sustain above $6 to regain upside momentum. Natural gas remains positive with scope to rise towards $3.5–$3.6.