Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls refuse to give up yet, eyeing US jobs data

Gold challenges $4,800 early Thursday following the latest Trump commentary, geopolitical woes.
The US Dollar enters an upside consolidation phase amid risk-off mood, ahead of JOLTS Job Openings data.
Gold looks to test 21-day SMA support once again, with upside likely intact on bullish RSI.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold is experiencing some volatility in Thursday’s Asian trading, moving back and forth in a roughly $200 range. Traders now look forward to the US JOLTS Job Openings data and geopolitical developments between the US and Iran for a clear directional impetus.

Gold struggles amid mixed fundamentals

Gold settled flat near $4,950 on Wednesday after witnessing two-way business. Initially, the traditional safe haven rebounded firmly to test the $5,100 level on uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential monetary policy outlook under Kevin Warsh. The Fed concerns undermined the US Dollar (USD) across the board.

Meanwhile, rekindled geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also provided a much-needed relief to Gold buyers, alongside increased concerns over the economic data disruption caused by the US partial government shutdown that ended on Tuesday.

However, the tide turned against the USD in the American session on Wednesday, following the release of the US ISM Services PMI data, which showed signs of a pick-up in inflation. Further, the tech sell-off on Wall Street gathered steam and spooked markets, as investors ran to the world’s reserve currency, the Greenback, for some solace.

The sell-off in the Japanese Yen (JPY)due to increased fiscal and political concerns boosted the USD/JPY pair, in turn, lifting the USD.

This reversal in the USD, fuelled a sharp pullback in Gold, but dip buyers once again jumped in near the $4,950 psychological level.

In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold is back in the red, having faced rejection again above the $5,000 key resistance. The USD extends its upbeat momentum, clinching fresh two-week highs against its six major currency rivals, as market mood worsens amid a global tech sell-off.

A meltdown in global providers of data analytics, professional services and software followed Anthropic's launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent on Friday, which raised concerns about AI-fuelled disruption to those industries, per Reuters.

Looking ahead, the delayed US JOLT Job Openings Survey could help Gold buyers cut their losses, especially if the data doubles down on two Fed rate expectations for this year.

However, if the JPY extends its downward spiral against the USD, Gold could see another bout of intense selling.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all rise, with the 21-day above the longer ones, underscoring a firm bullish structure. Price holds above these gauges, keeping buyers in control. The 21-day SMA at $4,827.45 offers nearby support, while the 50-day sits at $4,532.68. The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 52.58, neutral after easing from prior extremes, indicating momentum is consolidating.

The upward alignment of the SMAs supports a buy-on-dips stance while the price holds above the short-term average. A deeper pullback would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into view, with the 200-day at $3,821.77 underpinning the broader trend. RSI holding above the 50 midline would keep the bullish bias intact, whereas a drop back below it could open room for a broader retracement.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

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