Asia wrap: Something is deeply out of whack

Deeply out of whack

This was not another AI tantrum. It was the market that finally stressed the end state. Over the past three years, every AI-driven selloff has been framed as unwinding excess enthusiasm. This one was framed as future earnings being pulled forward and then erased. The difference matters. The speed and breadth of the drawdown indicate a market that is no longer debating valuation but rather survivability.

The epicentre was software for a reason. Software was where the margin fantasy lived most comfortably. High switching costs, recurring revenue, sticky workflows. AI was supposed to enhance that toll booth. Instead, the market is now confronting the possibility that AI walks around the booth entirely. The near-$1 trillion collapse in software equity value in a single week was not a panic over slowing growth. It was the first serious attempt to price business model displacement.

What triggered it was almost irrelevant in isolation. A modest AI product release. No blockbuster claims. No immediate revenue threat. But markets trade implications, not press releases. After a year in which AI tools materially reshaped software development itself, the marginal innovation suddenly carried exponential weight. If legal workflows can be automated at the margin, then sales, marketing, finance, and compliance follow. Desk language was blunt for a reason. Today, one vertical, tomorrow the enterprise stack.

Credit confirmed what equities were hinting at. More than $17 billion of US tech loans slipped into distressed territory over four weeks. That does not happen on vibes. That occurs when lenders begin to question the durability of forward cash flow. Equity can debate stories. Credit debates math. When both move together, a structural component is failing.

Asia was not reacting emotionally. It was repricing exposure. Korea’s memory-heavy index rolled over because AI demand now looks front-loaded rather than infinite. Taiwan declined because hardware leadership does not immunize it from upstream software margin compression. Japan absorbed the hit through SoftBank because Arm sits at the junction of optimism and capex reality. When Arm guided lower, the message was not a weak demand today, but tougher economics tomorrow.

The index level of damage understated the internal violence. Factor-based selling dominated. Momentum unwound. Crowded AI-adjacent trades were liquidated automatically. This is why the tape looked oddly calm while portfolios were being shredded. It was not discretionary selling. It was systematic deleveraging.

Even the supposed beneficiaries showed fatigue. Rising capital expenditure with unclear monetization paths is no longer being waved through. The market is beginning to question whether AI returns are asymmetrically accruing to a narrow group, while the rest bear the costs. That is a dangerous question because it collapses the halo effect around the entire ecosystem.

The cross-asset spillover sealed it. Gold and silver did not behave like havens. They behaved like margin collateral. Extreme realized volatility forced selling from players who never intended to trade bullion tactically. When safe assets are sold to fund losses elsewhere, it signals a liquidity event, not a macro shift.

This is why Asia's weakness matters. It is not sympathy. It is recognition. Recognition that the AI trade has moved from the narrative phase into the selection phase. Winners and losers are being reassessed in real time, and the market is doing it with a blunt instrument.

This was not a garden-variety drawdown. This was the market asking who would still earn a seat when AI stops being an add-on and becomes the labour. When that question is asked, repricing is never smooth, and it is never completed in one week.