Morning briefing: EUR/USD hold the 1.1500–1.1600 range

The U.S. economy added 119k jobs in Sep-25, surpassing expectations of 54k, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, creating an unclear picture for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision next month. The Dollar Index can test 101 as long as it stays above 100. EURUSD and EURINR hold the 1.15–1.16 and 102–103 ranges respectively for now. EURJPY and USDJPY are nearing targets of 183 and 160 that could be tested soon. While below 7.125, USDNCY can decline within its 7.13/125-7.09 range. The Aussie needs to surpass 0.6460 to maintain the 0.6450–0.6550 range; otherwise, it could fall toward 0.64 or lower. The Pound is attempting a rebound but the upside can be capped at 1.315-1.320 for now. The targets of 1.30-1.28 are kept open while the Pound trades below 1.32. USDINR can hold the 88.80-88.50/40 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. That keeps the sideways range intact. The expected bullish breakout is getting delayed. The jobs data release showed that the US added 119K jobs to its non-farm payroll in September. The Unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%. The German Yields remain higher but stable. A strong rise is needed from here to go up and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within its sideways range.

The Dow has plunged after the delayed September jobs report was released yesterday. There is a decent support at 45000 which needs to hold for the Dow to rise back, else the index can continue to decline in the coming days. Dax continues to trade within 23000-24500. Nifty has risen to close to resistance at 26200. A rise past this can continue rally towards 26500 else, can lead to a decline towards 26000-25800. Watch price action near 26200. Nikkei has lost gains seen yesterday and plunged to levels below 49000. However while above lower support at 48000, the index could still have some scope to rebound. Shanghai  has broken below 3900 and can now fall to 3800 or lower soon.

Crude prices stay weak with Brent and WTI both hovering at the lower end of their ranges and at risk of deeper drops if $62 and $58 break. Gold holds firm above $4000 and can push towards $4150-4250, while Silver trades above $50 with room to rise unless it slips below that support. Copper remains stable within its broader $5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas stays vulnerable below $4.7 with scope for a fall towards $4.2-4.0.