Morning briefing

Good Morning! 

The Major currencies remained stable due to the thinner volumes. Dollar Index can rise towards 109-109.50 while above 107.50-108.00. Euro, EURINR and Aussie have limited upside and are likely to trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6350/06300-0.6200 respectively until a decisive break is seen on either side. The pound has sustained above 1.25 but needs a strong break past 1.26 to rise higher within the 1.25-1.28 range. Else any break below 1.2500-1.2450, if seen, can be bearish. USDJPY tested 158 before coming down. A strong rise past 158 will be needed to extend the ongoing rise to 160 or higher. EURJPY has indeed risen past 164 and now if sustained, can test 166-167 on the upside. At the same time any fall below 164 can make it vulnerable to test 162 in the coming sessions. USDCNY is oscillating below the target of 7.30. While it trades above 7.25, the overall view is bullish towards 7.35. USDINR can extend the ongoing rise to 85.40/50 in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to remain higher but stable. The bullish view is intact for both the yields to move higher in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen slightly. Resistance ahead can cap the upside. Outlook is bearish to see more fall from here.

The Dow Jones sustained above 43,000 and edged higher. However, we anticipate a reversal from 43,400 or from higher levels of 44,000, potentially targeting a decline toward 42,000-41800. The DAX remains below 20,000, with the likelihood of falling further to 19,500. The Nifty continues to struggle to breach 23,900 and may consolidate within the 23,500-24,100 range. The Nikkei closed above 39,500 yesterday and has now risen past 40,000. A follow-through rally is needed to confirm further upside toward 41,000-42,000. The Shanghai attempted to climb above 3,400 but failed to sustain it and currently trades below this level. Any upside is expected to be capped at the 3,450 resistance.

Crude and Metal prices can remain ranged for a few more sessions. Brent and WTI can trade between 72.5/73-75 and 69-72 respectively. Gold, Silver can Copper remain rangebound between 2650/60-2600, 30.5-29.5/29.0 and 4.15/4.20-4.05. Natural Gas looks slightly bearish towards 3.0-2.8.