EUR/USD: The Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index trades lower on possible cooling off of further rate hikes but continues to trade within 105-107 region while Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07. EURJPY has bounced from 159 but while below 161 there is scope for a fall to 158. USDJPY trades above 150 and has scope to rise slowly back to 151/152. Pound can rise to 1.22-1.2250 before falling back to 1.21 while USDCNY may remain stuck around 7.30. Aussie must rise past 0.6450 to test 0.65 else can fall back towards 0.64 or lower. USDRUB can trade within 92-96 for very near term but eventual decline to 90 cannot be negated. USDINR is holding below 83.30 contrary to our expectation of seeing an upside break. The pair could remain within 83.15-83.30 for the very near term. EURINR can remain ranged within 89-87.50/87.00.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more before a reversal is seen again. The German yields have come close to their key supports. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower. That will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down towards the lower end of their respective range. We expect the range to remain intact and the yields to rise back within it.

Dow Jones has risen well breaking above its resistance and looks further bullish from here. DAX can see an extended rise on a break above 15200. Nifty has moved up but lacks strength. Shanghai has scope to break above its resistance at 3050 and rise further in the near term.

Brent and WTI have risen well as their support at $84 and $80 respectively have held well and look likely to target further upside. Gold lacks strength but needs to sustain above 1980 to avoid the danger of falling. Silver may continue to remain range bound while above 22.50. Key focus is on US NFP data today which could drive the prices of precious metals. Copper is iching up towards its key resistance. Needs to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural gas is to be range bound within 3.30-3.70 for a while.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.