EUR/USD: The Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index trades lower on possible cooling off of further rate hikes but continues to trade within 105-107 region while Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07. EURJPY has bounced from 159 but while below 161 there is scope for a fall to 158. USDJPY trades above 150 and has scope to rise slowly back to 151/152. Pound can rise to 1.22-1.2250 before falling back to 1.21 while USDCNY may remain stuck around 7.30. Aussie must rise past 0.6450 to test 0.65 else can fall back towards 0.64 or lower. USDRUB can trade within 92-96 for very near term but eventual decline to 90 cannot be negated. USDINR is holding below 83.30 contrary to our expectation of seeing an upside break. The pair could remain within 83.15-83.30 for the very near term. EURINR can remain ranged within 89-87.50/87.00.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more before a reversal is seen again. The German yields have come close to their key supports. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower. That will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down towards the lower end of their respective range. We expect the range to remain intact and the yields to rise back within it.

Dow Jones has risen well breaking above its resistance and looks further bullish from here. DAX can see an extended rise on a break above 15200. Nifty has moved up but lacks strength. Shanghai has scope to break above its resistance at 3050 and rise further in the near term.

Brent and WTI have risen well as their support at $84 and $80 respectively have held well and look likely to target further upside. Gold lacks strength but needs to sustain above 1980 to avoid the danger of falling. Silver may continue to remain range bound while above 22.50. Key focus is on US NFP data today which could drive the prices of precious metals. Copper is iching up towards its key resistance. Needs to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural gas is to be range bound within 3.30-3.70 for a while.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.