Axel Merk
Merk Hard Currency Fund
Analysis: Over the 90 years between 1927 and 2017, the average S&P 500 monthly return during expansions was +0.89% (889 months), compared to an average S&P 500 monthly return during recessions of -0.71% (191 months). In terms of proportions of time: expansion months account for about 80% and recession months about 20%. The business cycle also has important implications for Fed policy. *Note that recessions are not announced by the NBER until well after their start dates*
Analysis: Since last month’s report the LEI YoY rate of change decreased: from +5.9 to +5.2. The momentum has slowed somewhat, but given that the YoY rate of change remains positive, history suggests a recession is unlikely to start within the next six months. Chart Framework: I’d get incrementally negative on the business cycle outlook if the LEI YoY went negative.
Analysis: The yield curve is still positively sloped, meaning the 10yr yield is higher than the 3yr yield. The yield curve has steepened somewhat since last month’s report, but in general the flattening trend continues and the curve may invert in the coming months. Chart Framework: I’d get incrementally negative on the medium term business cycle outlook if the yield curve inverted (i.e., 3yr yield > 10yr yield).
Download The Full U.S. Business Cycle
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest riskswith the ease of investing in a mutual fund. The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest. The Fund primarily invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and the price of the Funds shares. Investing in foreign instruments bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Funds portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks please refer to the Funds prospectus. The views in this article were those of Axel Merk as of the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities mentioned herein. Mr. Merk is the founder and president of Merk Investments LLC and is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains above 1.0700 amid expectations of Fed refraining from further rate hikes
EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
GBP/USD gains traction above 1.2500, Fed keeps rates steady
GBP/USD gains traction near 1.2535 during the early Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the sharp decline of the US Dollar after the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged.
Gold price struggles for a firm intraday direction, hover above $2,300
Gold price fails to lure buyers amid a fresh leg up in the US bond yields, modest USD uptick. A positive risk tone also contributes to capping the upside for the safe-haven precious metal. Traders, however, might prefer to wait for the US NFP report before placing aggressive bets.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
Fed meeting: The hawkish pivot that never was, and the massive surge in the Yen
The Fed’s latest meeting is over, and the tone was more dovish than expected, but that is because the rate hike hype in the US was over-egged, and rate cut hopes had been pared back too far in recent weeks.