• Manufacturing PMI forecast to slip to 53 from 53.4.
  • Services PMI expected to drop to 55.5 from 56.9.
  • Initial Jobless Claims have put market on notice.
  • Poor November PMI results could damage the dollar.

Markets are worried.

Was last Thursday's surprise jump in American Initial Jobless Claims the start of another inexorable labor market catastrophe? Will the economy be again crippled by government ordered paralysis?

That is the slightly melodramatic context for IHS Markit Economics of London, November Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) on Monday.

Normally this newcomer to the PMI field is a precursor for the better known and far older Institute for Supply Management figures released one week later.

This time markets will be looking for any confirmation that the surprise 31,000 increase is, as it was in March, the forerunner of economic trouble.

The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI is forecast to slip to 53 in November. October's 53.4 was the highest reading since January 2019. The pandemic low as 36.1 in April.

Markit Manufacturing PMI


The Services PMI is expected to fall to 55. The 56.9 score in October was the best since April 2015. The pandemic low was 26.7 in April.

Initial Jobless Claims

The labor market and economic collapse in the second quarter was signaled by the jump in weekly jobless claims from 211,000 on March 6 to 3.307 million on the 20th and the record 6.867 million the following week. The claims figures were frighteningly accurate in predicting the debacle to come.

Initial Jobless Claims


Jobless claims had been predicted to drop to 707,000 in the week of November 13 from 711,000 when they were reported on the 19th. Instead they rose to 742,000. The increase of 31,000 is a far cry from the 3.307 million explosion from March 13 to March 20, from 282,000 to 3.307 million.

Markets nonetheless are concerned. Government imposed closures are rising around the country. Although most new restrictions are in the already decimated restaurant industry and it is unknown how many jobs will be affected, sensitivities are understandably high.


While Markit PMI indexes do not have a separate employment index as ISM does, any unexpected slippage in the general numbers for November will receive the worst interpretation.

Markets are anxious. Equities, the dollar and yields will fall if the purchasing managers are nervous.



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD tumbles from the highest since 2018 on the Brexit impasse

The GBP/USD roller coaster continues with a downfall below 1.35 after the pair hit a 31-month high of 1.3539 earlier. Brexit talks have yet to yield an agreement. Negotiations are set to continue through the weekend.


EUR/USD battles 1.2150 after disappointing NFP

EUR/USD is trading off the 32-month highs amid bumps in US stimulus and vaccine distribution. Markets await the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls missed expectations with 245K jobs gained in November. 


XAU/USD fails to break $1850 and turns to the downside

Gold peaked after the beginning of the American session at $1848/oz reaching the highest level since November 23 and then turned to the downside. It bottomed at $1829 and is it about to end the week hovering around $1830.

Gold news

Dollar downfall explained and what's next for markets

The safe-haven US dollar is hitting multi-month and multi-year lows against its peers while stocks are on fire. What is behind the risk-on rally? Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam discuss markets' moving parts as 2020 nears its end.

Read more

Extra week of Black Friday!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info

Forex Majors