CEE: Events worth watching in 2026

On the radar

• Czech central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at 3.5%
• Industrial output declined by -1.1% y/y in November in Poland. Producer prices dropped by -2.4% y/y while employment contracted by -0.8% y/y.
• Nominal wages increased by 7.1% y/y in November in Poland.
• Today, Hungary will release average gross wage in November at 8.30 AM CET.
• Slovenia will publish producer prices growth while Slovakia current account data.
• At 11 AM CET, Croatia will show unemployment rate in November and real wage growth in October..

Economic developments

Our last CEE Special Report | Events worth watching in 2026 provides a list with key developments next year across the region. The report goes beyond the traditional economic forecasts and peaks on the events of high importance that may affect economic prospects of the countries. Let’s begin with Hungary, which will hold parliamentary elections in April 2026 that we believe will be the most followed event in the first half of the year. Tisza remains ahead of the governing Fidesz, according to the majority of different polls. However, polling figures do not directly translate into parliamentary seats. Rating decisions in Poland and Slovenia are also on our radar. In Romania, we turn our attention to monetary policy and expectations for Romania’s central bank to catch up with interest rate cuts once inflation falls sharply. In Serbia, all eyes are on sanctions against NIS that pose a systemic risk to Serbia’s energy stability, financial system and macroeconomic sustainability. In Czechia and Slovakia, the focus goes to strategic investment decisions. Finally, in Croatia, we expect the integration process to be finalized as OECD membership should be granted to Croatia.

Market movements

The ECB left key interest rates unchanged at December meeting. The key deposit rate, which is the most important monetary policy rate, therefore remains at 2%. The updated assessment, which includes initial forecasts for 2028, confirmed that inflation will remain within the target range of 2% in the medium term. The market is currently pricing in a stable deposit rate of 2% at least until the end of 2026. Czech central bank left interest rates unchanged. The decision was in line with our and the market's expectations. The main rate thus remained at 3.50%. The vote was unanimous, The Governor reiterated at the press conference that domestic inflationary pressures remain elevated and do not allow for a reduction in rates. From the perspective of meeting the inflation target, it is therefore still necessary to keep monetary policy tight. The Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint have weakened this week against the euro while EURPLN keeps moving down and it touched 4.20 level. Long-term yields have declined most notably in Hungary where dovish central banks statement supports lower yields. Finally, Romania’s ruling parties agreed on a set of reforms needed for drafting next year’s state budget so that fiscal consolidation continues.

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