Markets mixed

USD: Jun '26 is Down at 99.385.  

Energies: Jun '26 Crude is Down at 94.51.

Financials: The Jun '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 1 tick and trading at 112.04.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 140 ticks Lower and trading at 7536.75.

Gold: The Apr'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4493.50.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded mainly Lower, all of Europe is trading Lower.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Challenger Job Cuts is out at 5:30 AM EST.    Major.
• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST.   Major.
• FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 8:30 AM EST.   Major.      
• Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST.   Not Major.
• Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST.     Not Major.
• FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 10 AM EST.    Major.
• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST.    Major.
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 11:40 AM EST.  Major.
• FOMC Member Schmid Speaks at 1 PM EST.  Major.
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 1:10 PM EST.  Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 9 AM EST with no major news items pending.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 9 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Jun '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias, but the markets had other ideas as the Dow dropped 621 points on the session and the other indices lost ground as well.  Today our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

As of yesterday, we are still awaiting an impending agreement between Iran and the US.  We are told that one is forthcoming, but no one knows when that will happen.  For the time being we will take each day as it presents itself.