Market shock: Gold plunges 9.1% from Wednesday high; Silver dives 12% from records before rebound

Swiss gold exports rose 27% month-on-month in December, driven by a surge in shipments to the U.K.

Gold prices pulled back Thursday in their most volatile session in three months, as some investors booked profits to offset losses elsewhere.

Spot gold briefly hit a record $5,602.22/oz before plunging as much as 9% from Wednesday high to around $5,097. Its steepest drop since October and by 2:00 p.m. et had recovered some losses to trade above $5,333/oz, down about 1.56% on the day.

Spot silver slid 12.24% from Wednesday high to $108.84/oz after peaking earlier at $121.67, following a roughly 50% gain so far this year amid tight supply and strong demand. 

CME FedWatch:

Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75

·         CME FedWatch March no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 86.60% today from 47.4% on December 29, 2025. 

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

·         Spot gold formed a blow-off top, hitting an all-time high overnight before plunging about 9% from peak to trough and then retracing.

·         Prices are gradually heading toward the $5,220–$5,202 range.

·         The sell-off suggests continuation pressure for a few days.

·         A similar sell-off on 12/29/2025 lasted roughly three days.

·         US 10‑year yield spiked to 4.30% amid expectations of a Fed rate-cut pause.

Gold 4 hourly chart:

Gold/Silver Ratio:

·         The gold–silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold (gold price ÷ silver price), a key gauge of relative value and potential moves.

·         It is below 50, the lowest since August 2011.

·         The big question now is whether this rally can be sustained.

Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

·         GLD peaked at 509.70.

·         ETF showed a large mirror-image decline following the sharp drop in spot gold.

·         GLD is headed to fill the daily-chart gap between 486 and 473.

GLD daily chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2007, GLD has risen an average of 3.3% in January 70% of the time, and 1.00% in February 58% of the time.