Major Pair Updates: Hourly & daily

It seems the risk on and risk off are the key drivers of the dollar.  Nothing new there.  But this environment is another reason, besides the wave chart analysis, is why if push come to shove, I still believe the dollar index has more room to correct higher. 

Sentiment in the stock market is so bullish, as if the Fed is almighty and powerful and will unleash yet another volley of money every single time there is a minor dip.  It is that easy.  The thing is, it has never been that easy and seems doubtful it will be this time. 

So, despite the fact stocks are still pointing higher near-term, my belief is another decent correction is due to prove to the so-called Robinhood crowd this game is never easy.  And as such, the dollar has one more move higher in a negatively correlated move with stocks; i.e. rally on risk off.  But as said, near-term, the major pairs can also push higher so the dollar has some room on the downside still.  We can see on the charts when my expectation of another dollar rally is wrong. Key support comes in at 96.36.

Dollar Index Daily: A break of 95.70 negates this view.

 

USD/JPY Hourly: A minor push higher in Wave (ii), then lower.  Now into 61.8% support near-term.

USD/JPY Daily: Still looking for a push down toward 104.50.

 

EUR/USD Hourly: A complex correction…the choppy moves here suggest more to go on the downside to complete a zig zag correction toward 1.1100.  A bit higher first on stocks? 

EUR/USD Daily:

 

GBP/USD Hourly: In the midst of a 5-wave (c) to complete [x] before lower?  Above 1.2687 adds weight to the “bottom is in” view at 1.2249.  A push to 1.2570-1.2600 first?

GBP/USD Daily:

 

USD/CAD Hourly:  Looks as if we get a push lower toward 1.3440-20, but confidence moderate at best.

 

USD/CAD Daily:

 

AUD/USD Hourly: Acting relatively weak here despite stocks.  Would be our favorite short if a dollar reversal (risk off) is seen over the next few days or less.

AUD/USD Daily: