Market movers today

Markets will continue to monitor the global COVID-19 development, as global cases now top 10,000,000 and global deaths unfortunately are set to climb above 500,000 today. In particular, the US situation continues to worsen and the reopening in e.g. Texas is now on halt. We are concerned about the development in the US, as increasing COVID-19 fears may lead to a setback in the US consumption rebound.

Today, the Macron-Merkel meeting in Meseberg is taking place ahead of the 17-18 July summit. The two leaders will discuss what strategy to employ to get the 'frugals' on board with the recovery fund.

Also today, the EU-UK free trade negotiations are set to restart with talks taking place in Brussels every workday of the week. We continue to believe there will be no major breakthrough over the summer, as we are still too far away from the ‘real' deadline on 31 December 2020.

In terms of economic data releases, the European economic confidence indicators for June from DG ECFIN are due out at 11:00 CEST.


Selected market news

Market sentiment was sour on Friday. After equities touching year-to-date highs earlier this month, we are now somewhat in the red territory again – and that has continued overnight in the Asian session where major indices are down around 1%. Lingering uncertainties about the spreading of COVID-19 and the potential of a second wave has made investors uneasy heading into the summer. US COVID-19 cases continue to set new daily highs and several states are now haunted by second virus waves. We are yet to see states introducing lockdown measures, but the risk is notably higher, most recently after the opening strategy was put on hold in a few states, see COVID-19 update: US situation keeps getting worse, local lockdowns in Europe, stocks move lower (25 June). The risk sentiment this week is expected to be driven by a mix of COVID-19 numbers, continued central bank support and incoming information about the opening of the economies.

In support to the Chinese lending dynamics, PBOC announced that it will increase the proportion of smaller loans and credits and lower the rates, in its most recent initiatives.

Comments in the ongoing German constitutional court (GCC) case against the ECB are intensifying. During the weekend, ECB board member Schnabel gave another speech targeting the German audience, while GCC judge Hüber said that they are no longer involved but leaving it to the responsibility of the Bundesbank.

With 80% of the votes counted at the time of writing in the Polish general election yesterday sitting President Duda has received 46% of the votes. As widely expected, they fall short of the 50% threshold required to win the election and hence a 12 July run-off against Trzaskowski (28%) should decide the result of the next presidency.

Download The Full Daily FX Market Commentary

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces after upbeat COVID-19 cure news

EUR/USD is trading above 1.13, rebounding from the lows. Gilead reported that its drug Remdesevir substantially reduces mortality among COVID-19 patients. The news boosted stocks and weighed on the dollar. US coronavirus statistics are due out.


GBP/USD recaptures 1.26 as the market mood improves

GBP/USD is trading above 1.26 as the market mood improves and the safe-haven dollar retreats. Investors are shrugging off Brexit concerns and focusing on hopes to cure coronavirus. US COVID-19 statistics are due out.


XAU/USD consolidates daily gains above $1,800

After advancing to its highest level since September of 2011 at $1,818 on Wednesday, the XAU/USD pair staged a correction and briefly dropped below $1,800 on Thursday.

Gold News

Cryptocurrencies: War for dominance hit the bedrock of the market

Bitcoin tried to regain market share and activated sales in the Altcoin segment. BTC/USD, ETH/USD and XRP/USD are looking for supports and a rebound to push them to new elative highs. The current compression on the XRP/USD chart could trigger an exploding movement.

Read more

WTI once again breaks $40 per barrel after trading lower in early EU trade

There has been quite the bounce in WTI since the EU session after some strong selling pressure during Thursday and overnight. Once again on Friday's session, the price has taken the USD 40 per barrel handle. 

Oil News

Forex Majors