Macro Events & News

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

FX News Today

Treasury yields stabilised, after falling yesterday in the wake of softer core CPI readings, while the US 10-year rate is up 0.5 bp at 2.470%.

10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to -0.068% in catch up trade and as stock market sentiment remains muted.

Indices traded mixed with Chinese markets under-performing.

Dovish leaning central banks revived growth concerns and geopolitical trade tensions also continue to hang over markets, with no tangible sign of a US-Sino trade deal.

The Brexit question was kicked down the line to October 31, but without a clear solution in sight.

Topix and Nikkei are down 0.4 bp and up 0.08% respectively. while Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lost -0.88% and -1.31%. The CSI 300 blue chip index is down -1.99% and the ASX closed with a loss of -0.36%.

US futures are also marginally in the red, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 64.25 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

EURUSD broke through the 1.1276 level in the last hours, with soft Resistance at 1.1286 and strong resistance at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show mixed signals.

GBPUSD gained as news of the decision to delay Brexit broke off, even though whether it can persist above the 200HMA level of around 1.3086 is still unclear. Indicators show an easing of the trend.

USDJPY continues to trade below the 200HMA, now at 111.11 with both the Stochastics and the MACD showing support for an upwards trend.

XAUUSD broke off the 1304, after breaking the 1300 mark yesterday, currently trading between the 1309 and 1304 levels. Indicators again appear indecisive regarding the future trend of the pair.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI ex Food&Energy (USD, GMT 11:30) – The US PPI is expected to have grown by 2.4% in March, compared to 2.5% last month, similar to the core CPI results yesterday.

Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 11:30) – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 211K, compared to 202K in the last week of March, while Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast to reach 1.738M against 1.717M last week.

Fedspeak: Clarida, Bullard, and Bowman (USD, Various) – All 3 FOMC Members are due to speak on monetary policy issues, a topic which is likely to affect markets, depending on the context.

Support and Resistance

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

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