Macro Events & News

Andria Pichidi HFM

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.9025, 10-year JGBs up 0. 1bp at 0.025%, both are down from session highs, but holding on to some of their gains as stock market sentiment settles ahead of key PMI readings in the Eurozone and the US today. Stock market sentiment remains muted, after yesterday’s sell off on Wall Street, but indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.46% and -0.63% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses and are up 0.19% and 0.40%. Trade concerns continue to linger and in Europe Italian political jitters remain a major concern, but US Stock Futures are improving. The USOIL rallied and is at $66.26. OPEC and its allies reached a preliminary agreement to boost production despite opposition from Iran. The calendar had national CPI for Japan, which saw the annual reading rising to 0.7% from 0.6%. The Manufacturing PMI Index meanwhile rose to 53.1 from 52.8 and the All Industry Activity Index also improved.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately softer so far today, extending a theme that has been seen since yesterday following the release of the Philly Fed index, which came in much weaker than expected. Amid this backdrop, the Euro has corrected some of its recent losses against most other currencies, which has likely reflected short covering, although in a market still wary about the Italian Government’s Eurosceptic bias. EURUSD has recovered back above 1.1600, posting a 3-day high at 1.1638. The pair had yesterday printed an 11-month low at 1.1508. USDJPY has settled near the 110.0 level, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the pair posted a 5-day high at 1110.75. Ahead today, focus will be on PMI survey data out of both Europe and the US, the evolving trade war, and the OPEC-plus-Russia meeting in Vienne, the run-in to which has exposed signs of discord among some members, which has pushed oil prices up.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

German PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI should fall at 56.2 from 56.9 in the previous month. The Services reading is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1

Eurozone PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.1 down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The Services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.5 from 53.8 in the May.

Canadian CPI and Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in May after the 0.3% rise in April. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in May, accelerating from the 2.2% clip in April. The Retail Sales are expected to rise only 0.1% in April after the 0.6% gain in March.

US Sevices PMI – Expectations – is seen falling slightly to 56.4 in June.

Support and Resistance Levels

Author

Andria Pichidi

HFM

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in

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