Macro Events & News

Stuart Cowell HFM

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Conciliatory words on trade from China’s President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a “Cold War mentality” helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now.

FX Update: USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xi’s keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

USA PPI – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%.

CAD Housing Starts – Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February.

Support and Resistance level

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.