Long end sells off through softer PCE

EU mid-market update: Long end sells off through softer PCE as OATs widen before Paris tables a budget the next majority can reverse; Washington turns its diesel request into an ultimatum while FERC parks data-centre power procurement; Micron capex lifts European chip equipment.

Notes/observations

- Softer U.S. inflation has now taken much of the urgency out of another October Fed hike without taking anything meaningful out of the term premium. The 10Y just touched 5.34%, now at its highest since 2002, the 30Y reached almost 5.7%, and Treasuries just completed their worst quarter since 1994 even after August PCE came in softer than expected and Williams said there was no need to hurry after September's hike. Fewer than half of S&P constituents are above their 200- day moving average and more members have printed 52- week lows than highs for nine consecutive sessions, despite the index remaining close to its record; the equal- weight S&P fell 4.4% in September versus a small gain for the cap- weighted index and is heading toward a seventh consecutive weekly decline, a run previously seen only in 2002 and 2022. The gap between index stability and volatility underneath it is now around its widest since the dot-com bust: cash-rich mega-cap technology can tolerate a 5%+ discount rate much longer than banks, small industrials, levered consumers and companies that must refinance into it. The long end is therefore tightening the equity market through participation rather than the index price-years 10- 30 are repricing fiscal issuance and AI's enormous demand for capital while a handful of AI- linked balance sheets continue to hold the capitalization-weighted benchmark near its highs. That is a much less benign configuration than an ordinary narrow rally: lower Fed odds can rescue the front end, but they do very little for the growing majority of companies whose relevant cost of capital is being set by a 5.3% Treasury rather than the next 25bp FOMC decision.

- France's €54B budget effort arrives with a rather less flattering number attached to it: €339.7B of state financing needs in 2027, €28B more than this year's updated requirement. The government is presenting the 2027 budget today with a 5.0% deficit target, versus roughly 5.4% this year, yet Agence France Trésor says medium/long- term redemptions alone increase by €19.4B as pandemic and energy-crisis borrowing starts maturing; another €6.1B of EU recovery funding disappears and has to be replaced. Public debt is already around 119% of GDP and the government's own trajectory takes it to roughly 121.7% next year. So the €54B adjustment does not produce a smaller French bond market: it stops the deficit deteriorating toward the >6% path the government says would prevail without action while France refinances old, cheap debt at rates around 4.7- 4.8%. Defence spending continues rising, social spending is still growing and interest expense is becoming one of the budget's fastest- moving lines. That is why the parliamentary fight over whether individual cuts survive is only half the OAT trade. Even if the full package survived unchanged, investors would still have to absorb a record issuance programme whose average coupon is replacing debt written when the ECB deposit rate was negative.

- Micron has converted a semiconductor shortage into something memory companies almost never possessed in previous cycles: customers financing the producer years before they receive the bits. Its 26 Strategic Customer Agreements now carry $32B of financial commitments, up from $22B only three months ago and largely backed by cash deposits; non- current customer contract liabilities on Micron's balance sheet have exploded to $12.9B from $568M a year ago. More than 75% of fiscal- 2027 output is already committed across SCA and ordinary customers, discussions are moving into 2028 and some contracts extend into 2031. At the same time Micron just printed an 87% non-GAAP gross margin and says it still cannot see when supply catches demand. HBM complicates the normal memory- cycle cure because each unit consumes disproportionate wafer capacity while node transitions are yielding smaller bit- density improvements, so new cleanroom capacity due in 2028 does not create an immediate wall of supply in 2027. Customers that used to let Micron carry the inventory risk are now depositing cash to make sure somebody else does not take their wafers. The memory cycle has not disappeared; part of its price risk has simply been moved forward several years and onto Nvidia, hyperscalers and other customers whose accelerator economics increasingly depend on receiving memory they have already helped finance.

- Google's own Gemini 4 table and Bloomberg's reporting from inside Google point in opposite directions. Argon leads Claude Opus 5.5 on DeepSWE, 77.9% versus 74.2%, yet loses badly on FrontierSWE, 55.0% versus 62.3%, and Terminal- bench, 57.4% versus 66.4%; employees with direct access told Bloomberg that the model can look considerably better on benchmarks than during actual coding and some raised “benchmaxxing” as a concern. Google disputes that characterisation and says thousands of employees are already using Argon internally. There is an unusually good control experiment from the previous generation: Gemini 3.1 Pro beat Opus 4.6 on Google's Android benchmark 72.4% to 66.6% and beat it on Terminal-Bench 2.0, yet JetBrains' survey of more than 15,000 professional developers found Claude Code at 39% adoption, Codex at 16% and Google's Antigravity at only 6% by May- July. Benchmarks were not useless; they simply failed to predict where developers subsequently routed sustained work. Argon's 1M-token output ceiling and introductory $2/$10 pricing are technically extraordinary, but a million- token trajectory is commercially valuable only if developers trust the first 50,000 tokens enough to let the model continue. Google has already demonstrated it can win an eval without winning that trust.

- Gulf crude has largely repaired itself while the product system has not, which is why Washington is now reportedly asking Europe to release 120M barrels of diesel over six months-roughly 650K bpd-or risk a U.S. diesel export ban. Goldman estimates Gulf exports including dark flows at 23.3M bpd over the past week, back around the 2025 average, with crude alone near 19M bpd or 108% of last year's average as Yanbu and the East- West Pipeline reopen; diesel, gasoline and jet- fuel exports from the region, by contrast, remain around half 2025 levels. Brent can therefore fall back from $107 into the high- $90s even while the tighter part of the energy complex sits further downstream in refinery output, freight, insurance and replacement cargoes. The reported U.S. demand effectively asks Europe to use strategic inventories as a substitute for missing refining capacity so Washington does not have to close the Gulf Coast export valve itself: Germany and France hold more than a third of EU emergency diesel reserves, France alone has recently sourced roughly 36% of its diesel imports from the U.S., and American diesel inventories are already near four- decade seasonal lows. A ban could push U.S. pump prices down initially, but it would also remove roughly 1.3M bpd of exports from a system where Europe and Latin America are already competing for fewer Middle Eastern and Russian barrels; Gulf Coast tanks would fill, refinery margins would compress and eventually run rates could fall, tightening gasoline and jet fuel alongside diesel. The 120M barrels are therefore less an emergency release than a transfer of scarcity from commercial supply into Europe's strategic balance sheet: Washington preserves refinery utilisation and export economics, while Europe spends the inventory designed to insure against exactly this kind of disruption. Tehran's seven-day proposal can reopen more crude routes if sequencing is resolved, but diplomacy cannot manufacture distillate already lost from refineries or restore cancelled Qatari LNG cargoes. By the October 15 EU oil- supply coordination meeting, the relevant shortage may no longer be measured in barrels coming through Hormuz at all, but in how much strategic product inventory Europe is willing to burn to keep the global refinery system from fragmenting.

- Oracle received two pieces of news in 24 hours that almost perfectly describe its new balance sheet. Tencent has reportedly committed roughly $7B over five years to lease about 100,000 Nvidia- class accelerators housed in Oracle data centres across Southeast Asia, with around 30%-roughly $2.1B-paid upfront; the arrangement allows Tencent to consume advanced U.S. compute that it cannot buy for deployment in China while leaving the physical chips offshore. Oracle therefore acquires exactly what an infrastructure borrower likes: cash up front, a five- year customer and high utilisation against expensive hardware. Meanwhile Oracle and STACK confirmed that floodwater reached Project Jupiter in New Mexico, said no critical infrastructure was damaged and that insurers are addressing site impacts, then said Jupiter remains on “our planned schedule.” They did not say the original commissioning or energisation dates are unchanged. That wording deserves attention because the $18B Jupiter financing already trades below par, Oracle has invoked force majeure around power/permitting and its contracts can leave it paying carry costs while the asset is not fully earning rent. One Oracle customer is effectively prepaying for scarce compute that already exists offshore; another giant contracted workload sits behind a campus where lenders still cannot reconcile “planned schedule” with the exact date the megawatts become revenue. Oracle's $664B backlog therefore contains two very different assets: contracts attached to live GPUs, and contracts attached to infrastructure whose calendar still carries construction, power, permitting and now weather risk.

- Japan's JERA/Dell/RHAELM project looks almost engineered to avoid that Jupiter problem before anyone raises the first construction loan. The planned Chiba campus starts with land next to JERA's existing power station, a defined 400MW load, a 15- 25 year electricity agreement, Dell supplying rack- scale equipment, RHAELM developing and financing the site and Apollo sitting alongside as financial partner. The first 400MW project is priced around $15B, with phased operation from 2028 and full capacity targeted for 2029; the partners explicitly want to reuse the structure elsewhere. That is a markedly different sequence from buying land, signing a hyperscale tenant and later discovering that transmission, generation or gas infrastructure has its own timetable. There will still be construction and permitting risk, but 400MW beside an existing generator under a long- term supply contract is much easier to finance than 400MW drawn on a future grid map. AI campuses are beginning to bifurcate between sites where “power” means a utility forecast and sites where the generator, contract, land and financial sponsor are assembled before the compute order arrives. Jupiter's debt trading around 90 gives that difference a price.

- Taiwan is putting the Middle East energy shock on the sovereign balance sheet so it does not appear in semiconductor margins. Taipei today proposed roughly NT$415B/$13B of additional support for state- owned Taipower and CPC, including T$180.9B to absorb price differences and T$233.8B of capital for CPC, whose accumulated losses now exceed T$127B. The government has deliberately restrained domestic electricity and fuel pass- through while imported energy costs rise; it is now warning that CPC's balance sheet is weak enough to threaten its credit rating and procurement strength without recapitalisation. For an economy built around fabs, this is industrial policy via the utility P&L. Micron's customers are writing deposits to reserve memory, JERA is signing 25- year power against future AI racks, while Taiwan is using fiscal capital to prevent the fuel bill underneath semiconductor production from immediately entering either household CPI or manufacturing cost. None removes the cost. They decide whether it lands first on the chip buyer, the data- centre tenant, the utility or the taxpayer.

- Japan's Tankan gives the BOJ almost the mirror image of the Fed's problem. Large- manufacturer confidence rose to +24, an eight- year high, helped by AI demand and firms' ability to pass through higher costs, while large non- manufacturers slipped to +35 as household- facing activity absorbed more of the energy shock. Corporate inflation expectations remain at 2.6% three years out and 2.5% five years out, but they did not accelerate; meanwhile the summary of the September meeting shows several BOJ members already discussing a faster path of hikes after taking the policy rate to 1.25%. The manufacturing side of Japan is being supported by exactly the capital cycle visible in Micron and JERA, while domestic services and consumption face the imported- energy bill that accompanies it. Another immediate hike is therefore less mechanically implied by the headline Tankan than +24 suggests, but neither does the survey provide much evidence that Japan is returning to its old low- inflation equilibrium. JGB investors are already behaving accordingly: 10Y yields are around 3.1% after another double- digit- basis- point quarterly rise even as the government remains wary of tightening too fast.

- Cross- asset: UST 2Y is roughly 4.88- 4.90%, the 10Y around 5.29- 5.31% and the 30Y roughly 5.64- 5.65% after the 10Y's 87bp Q3 rise, the worst Treasury quarter since 1994. Bund 10Y is around 3.6- 3.62%, France remains around 4.8% with the OAT/Bund premium near multi- year highs, UK 10Y gilts have traded around 5.49% and JGB 10Y near 3.1%. DXY is around 101.7, EUR/USD near 1.132 and USD/JPY around 157- 158. Brent is around $98- 99, WTI around $90 and gold near $4,200. Micron has lifted the semiconductor complex-Nikkei gained more than 3% in earlier trade and Nasdaq futures are positive-while European indices opened softer, with the STOXX 600 around - 0.5% and France additionally carrying today's budget risk. The uncomfortable pairing entering Q4 is no longer simply “AI equities up, bonds down.” Micron is showing customers willing to finance capacity years in advance at near- 90% gross margins while sovereign borrowers are simultaneously paying the highest long rates in decades. The shortage asset is being prepaid; the capital used to build everything around it is becoming progressively more expensive.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 outperforming +3.4%. EU indices -1.5% to -0.9%. US futures -0.5% to +0.4%. Gold 0.0%, DXY +0.4%; Commodity: Brent +2.6%, WTI +2.5%; Crypto: BTC -0.1%, ETH 0.0%.

Asia

- Japan business leaders arranging China visit for March, 2027 - Kyodo.

- Japan said to be aiming to speed up data centre development with a $140B investment scheme leveraging its gas trading company - FT.

- India Finance Ministry Releases Monthly Economic Report: Geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices could add to imported inflation pressures.

Europe

- France PM Lecornu reportedly wants €43B in new savings in the budget - French TV.

- Gavekal Research: The spread between French 10- year yields and German 10- year could widen to 150- 300bps in an extreme scenario as next year’s presidential election approaches.

- EU plans to cut capital charges in half on the safest securitizations - press.

- ECB asks EU to start finding successor to ECB's Schnabel - press.

- Italy extends suspension of EU's Schengen free border with Spain until mid- Oct from Oct 1st - press.

Americas

- Federal Reserve Inspector General Report: Finds no criminal or administrative misconduct regarding Fed building renovation cost overruns

- Reportedly US HHS is launching project to speed up clinical trials - Axios.

- Google Introduces Gemini Argon 4; Actively engaged in US government's voluntary process for pre- release model access while we gradually expand access for Gemini 4 Argon - company blog.

- Elon Musk along with Anduril Industries founder Luckey and former House Speaker Gingrich to lead Pentagon study of future warfare - Axios citing Def Sec Hegseth comments earlier today.

- US Treasury Sec Bessent reportedly settled 'tax issue' with federal government this summer - WSJ.

- OpenAI Statement: Aware of reports of OpenAI models attempting to access publicly available information from Canadian government websites; Reviewing these findings and have provided an initial briefing to Canadian officials conducting the government's review.

- IBM Introduces self- hosted deployment for IBM Bob to help enterprises advance AI sovereignty and governance.

- Oracle Statement on Southern New Mexico Floods: No critical infrastructure was damaged; Project Jupiter remains on schedule after flooding reaches campus - update.

- Colombia Central Bank raises Overnight Lending Rate 25bps to 12.25%; Not expected.

Trade/energy

- US reportedly wants the EU to release 120 million barrels of diesel in the next 6 months or face possible US diesel export ban - press
South Korea Industry Ministry: US Alaska LNG project investment not decided yet - Yonhap.

- Largest US grid reportedly suspends plan for new data center power auction - press.

- The two Senators sponsoring a bill for permanent ban Chinese car imports will wait to seek a vote until after Congress returns from recess in November - press citing aides.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

[FTSE - 1.74% at 10,421.36, DAX - 1.22% at 24,891.42, CAC- 40 - 1.49% at 7,846.06, IBEX- 35 - 1.73% at 19,090.98, FTSE MIB - 1.55% at 50,575.50, SMI - 1.28% at 13,652.70, S&P 500 Futures - 0.01%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equities opened the fourth quarter on a distinctly weaker footing on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 falling 1.74%, the IBEX 35 dropping 1.73%, the FTSE MIB down 1.55%, the CAC 40 off 1.49%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declining 1.34% and the DAX losing 1.22%, as rising sovereign yields, persistent energy- driven inflation fears and a stalled Middle East peace process outweighed any relief from softer U.S. data. Stalling U.S.- Iran talks left crude prices elevated while preliminary September consumer- price readings accelerated faster than expected in France, Italy and Spain on sharp fuel and gas spikes, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will keep policy restrictive for longer even as global yields climbed further near multi- year highs. The most notable individual movers were Hensoldt, rising 2.5%, and Infineon and Soitec, each up 2.0% as European semiconductors bucked the sell- off on Micron’s stronger capex guidance and AI- related demand, against Zealand Pharma’s 10.0% plunge on competitive obesity- drug read- through and Breedon’s 5.0% drop amid intensified UK housing and mortgage- affordability pressures. Cooler- than- expected August U.S. PCE inflation provided only limited yield relief, leaving banks, long- duration growth names and rate- sensitive sectors under sustained pressure as investors remained cautious heading into further regional data and fourth- quarter earnings.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Pandora [PNDORA.DK] - 4.5% (CEO said US demand was stabilising only at a low level amid inflation, high fuel prices and consumer uncertainty).

Healthcare: Sanofi [SAN.FR] +0.5% (expanded its antibody partnership with Regeneron, paying $1bn upfront and offering up to $7bn in milestones for four long- acting therapies), Zealand Pharma [ZEAL.DK] - 10.0% (competitive obesity- drug read- through after Regeneron and Novo Nordisk reported that trevogrumab added to semaglutide preserved more than 70% of thigh- muscle loss at 52 weeks).

Technology: Infineon [IFX.DE] +2.0%, Soitec [SOI.FR] +2.0%, ASML [ASML.NL] +1.0%, BE Semiconductor Industries [BESI.NL] +1.0%, ASM International [ASM.NL] +1.0%, STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] +1.0% (Micron Capex guidance; European semiconductor and chip- equipment names bucked the selloff as AI- capex exposure drew buyers), RELX [REL.UK] - 3.0%, SAP [SAP.DE] - 2.0%, Informa [INF.UK] - 2.0% (higher global bond yields pressured long- duration software, information- services and subscription valuations).

Telecom: Gamma Communications [GAMA.UK] - 3.0% (Waterland dropped its takeover proposal), Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] - 2.0% (high- dividend bond- proxy exposure sold off as sovereign yields rose).

Industrials / Defence: Hensoldt [HAG.DE] +2.5%, Thales [HO.FR] +1.0% (listed defence names outperformed after KNDS suspended its IPO, removing near- term competing equity supply), Siemens [SIE.DE] +2.0% (Siemens Energy pre- close call; data- centre electrification and automation exposure joined the AI- infrastructure bid), Sandvik [SAND.SE] - 3.5% (BNP Paribas downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a SEK405 price target), Sika [SIKA.CH] - 2.5% (shares fell after the Fast Forward update quantified CHF80m of 2026 benefits and CHF150m- CHF200m of profit uplift through 2028), Trelleborg [TRELB.SE] - 2.0% (SEB downgraded to Hold from Buy).

Financials: Bank of Ireland [BIRG.IE] - 4.5%, HSBC [HSBA.UK] - 3.0%, Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] - 3.0%, BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] - 3.0%, ING [INGA.NL] - 3.0%, Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] - 2.5% (banks led the broad risk- off selloff as global sovereign yields remained near multi- year highs), UBS [UBSG.CH] - 2.0% (shareholder Artisan Partners urged the bank to leave Switzerland in response to stricter proposed capital requirements), CVC Capital Partners [CVC.NL] - 2.0%, Aegon [AGN.NL] - 2.0%, ING [INGA.NL] - 2.0% (financial risk assets weakened as the European selloff and rates volatility intensified).

Real Estate: Breedon [BREE.UK] - 5.0%, Ibstock [IBST.UK] - 4.5%, Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] - 3.5%, Berkeley Group [BKG.UK] - 3.5% (UK housing and construction exposure sold off as rising gilt yields intensified mortgage- affordability and demand concerns).

Speakers

- (JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Will appropriately control total annual issuance of government bonds, taking into account both initial and supplementary .budgets

- (US) Pres. Trump: Congratulations to the GREAT Boeing Company for producing a plane, the 737 Max, that was able to wit... - post on Truth Social

- (UK) BOE Gov Bailey: AI boom could trigger market shocks; AI asset prices could see correction; AI investment brings 'substantial risks' - BBC Interview.

- (CN) China Finance Minister: To implement proactive fiscal policy; To support achievement of full- year economic goals.

- (IN) India Trade Minister Goyal: Discussed with USTR Greer towards early conclusion of interim agreement under India- US bilateral trade deal [comments on sidelines of G20 meeting].

- (KR) South Korea President Lee: Alaska LNG project work to begin only if commercial viability confirmed and in compliance with South Korean legal procedures.

- (KR) South Korea President Lee: South Korea to upgrade missile defense systems including AI- based command networks and laser interceptors; To keep pursuing measures to reduce military tensions.

- (IL) Israel PM Netanyahu: Flydubai attacking pilot is now being investigated; Israel will be participating in probe; Too early to say when asked about motivation - Fox News.

- (US) President Trump: [Confirms US- South Korea Trade Agreement] In New York, I met with Lee Jae Myung, the President of the Republic of Korea, and we agreed to launch 200 Billion Dollars of new Investments in AMERICA! We will build American Energy and American Power across the United States under my 350 BILLION DOLLAR Korea Strategic Trade and Investment Deal that I reached with President Myung last year - post on Truth Social.

- (KR) South Korea Finance Minister: Will closely monitor financial markets, take pre- emptive action if needed.

- (US) White House Science & Tech Advisor Sacks: Need AI- powered cyber defense to respond to AI attacks ; AI companies agreed to new internal controls and audits - Fox Business.

- (US) Interior Sec Burgum: Europe refined fuel stockpile release could lower prices; Europe voluntary release of diesel stockpile would help.

- (US) Fed's Kashkari (voter): Inflation is still too high, is around 3% rate, new data didn't change that story - Participates in fireside chat before the Council on Foreign Relations C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics event, NYC.

- (US) Fed's Goolsbee (non- voter in 2026; voter in 2027): Record divergence between vibes of consumer sentiment and hard data of spending.

- (US) US Energy Sec Wright: Will hear announcements from Europe about new diesel supplies soon - White House Q&A with Trump.

- (US) Trump: Studying our response to Iran right now; Still thinking about a diesel export ban; China is going 'full blast' on AI.

- (US) Commerce Sec Lutnick: Southeast Asia to lean on US for gas after Alaska pipeline project - comments from White House.

- (US) Trump: Notes South Korea energy investment deal announced today was part of $350B investment pledge last year that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%.

- (US) Pres. Trump: Former Fed Chair Powell should be forced to resign from the Fed board; If he doesn't resign he should be sued by the US govt for either corruption or incompetence.

- (US) Fed's Cook (voter): Inflation has been too high for too long; Committed to returning inflation to 2% while preserving labor market strength.

- (US) Trump: You will see things happening very soon on Iran; We have "almost total control" of the Strait of Hormuz; Oil flowing out of the Strait has been at historic levels in the past 3 days.

- (US) USTR Greer: 10 more trade deals are on the way; In fairly frequent contact with Canada counterpart, if they want a deal the door is always open - Fox Business interview.

- (US) Pres. Trump: Pleased to announces the last American Forces are leaving Iraq!; We leave with Iraq having a wonderful new Prime Minister, Ali al- Zaidi, somebody I supported from the beginning and fully endorsed.

- (UK) UK PM Burnham: Cannot have unfunded plans in budget; Looking at all things including fuel duty ahead of budget - interview comments.

Economic data

- (BE) Belgium Aug Unemployment Rate: 5.9% v 6.0% prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Aug unemployment rate: 6.4% V 6.4%E.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 v 46.5e (above all estimates).

- (UK) Sept final Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 V 52.0E (confirms 11th straight expansion).

- (IT) Italy Aug Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 5.8%e.

- (EU) Eurozone Sept final PMI Manufacturing: 52.9 V 52.7E (highest since May 2022, confirms 8th straight expansion).

- (GR) Greece Sept Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 v 54.4 prior (43rd straight expansion).

- (DE) Germany Sept final Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 V 53.8E (confirms 8th straight expansion).

- (FR) France Sept final Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 V 50.3E (confirms 2nd straight expansion).

- (IT) Italy Sept Manufacturing PMI: 50.4 V 50.2E (moves back into expansion).

- (TH) Thailand Sept Business Sentiment Index: 48.1 v 49.8 prior.

- (CZ) Czech Sept Manufacturing PMI: 53.5 v 53.7e (7th straight expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Sept Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 v 56.2e (7th straight expansion).

- (ES) Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 V 50.0E (highest since May, above all estimates).

- (HU) Hungary Sept Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 v 51.5 prior (8th straight expansion).

- (PL) Poland Sept Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 v 48.7e (18th straight contraction).

- (TR) Turkey Sept Manufacturing PMI: 47.9 v 48.1 prior (30th straight contraction).

- (SE) Sweden Sept Manufacturing PMI: 58.1 v 56.3 prior (26th straight expansion).

- (CH) SWISS SEPT CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1%E.

- (CH) Swiss Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.6% prior.

- (UK) Sept nationwide house price index M/M: - 0.2% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.4%E.

- (RU) Russia Sept Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 48.8 prior (2nd straight contraction).

- (PE) Peru Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e.

- (IN) India Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 55.7 prelim (confirms 63rd month of expansion).

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Manufacturing PMI: 55.6 v 53.8 prior (16th month of expansion).

- (ID) Indonesia Aug Trade Balance: $3.6B v $0.6Be.

- (ID) Indonesia Sept CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e.

- (JP) Japan Sept Final Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 v 54.1 prelim (confirms 9th month of expansion).

- (IE) Ireland Sept Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 v 55.4 prior [21st month of expansion].

- (JP) Japan Q3 tankan large Manufacturing index: 24.0 v 25.2e; large manufacturing outlook: 21.0 V 22.4E.

- (AU) Australia Sept Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 49.3 prelim (confirms 1st month of contraction).

- (NZ) New Zealand Aug Building Permits M/M: +5.6% v - 4.5% prior.

- (CO) Colombia Aug Industrial Confidence: 5.8 v 6.1 prior; Retail Confidence: # v 27.5 prior.

- (RU) Russia Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.3% v 5.1%e.

- (RU) Russia Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.2% v 2.2%e.

Fixed income issuance

- (FR) France debt agency (AFT) sells total €11.999b vs. €10.0-12.0b indicated range in 2036, 2037, 2038 and 2048 bonds.

- (ES) Spain debt agency (TESORO) sells total €5.061b vs. €4.5- 5.5b indicated range in 2029, 2036 and 2046 spgb bonds.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells €520M vs. €250- 750M indicated range in 1.15% Nov 2036 inflation- linked bonds (SPGBei).

- (IN) India sells total INR330B vs. INR330B indicated in 2029, 2033 and 2056 bonds (4 tranches).

- (KR) South Korea on Oct debt issuance: Cuts bond issuance to KRW 12T; To consider additional cuts if needed - press.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (US) Sept Challenger Total Job Cuts: No est v 52.9K prior; Y/Y: No est v - 38.5% prior.

- 05:30 Bank of France's François Villeroy de Galhau / Bundesbank President Nagel - OMFIF event.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v - 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v - 1.4% prior.

- 06:30 Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson - speech on Swedish monetary policy, London.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v - 7.9% prior; Consumption Y/Y: No est v - 2.6% prior.

- 07:01 (NZ) New Zealand Sept Cotality Home Value M/M: No est v - 0.4% prior.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v - 1.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v - 1.5% prior.

- 08:00 BoE's Catherine Mann - Nomura investor- conference speech.

- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Sept Budget Balance (CZK): No est v - 186.1B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: No est v K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v M prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 46.3 prior.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 25th: No est v $B prior.

- 09:10 BoE's Sasha Mills - Digital Assets Summit speech.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.0 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Sept Final S&P Manufacturing PMI: No est v # prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: No est v 54.6 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Aug Construction Spending M/M: No est v - 0.5% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 11:00 (PE) Peru Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Total Remittances: No est v $5.6B prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.3 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.8 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Sept IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.7 prior; Non- Manufacturing Index: No est v 48.7 prior.

- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Sept ANZ Consumer Confidence: No est v # prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior; CPI (ex- food/energy) Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept Tokyo CPI Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior; Tokyo CPI (ex- fresh food) Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior; Tokyo CPI (ex- fresh food/energy) Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Aug Jobless Rate: No est v 2.4% prior; Job- To- Applicant Ratio: No est v 1.18 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Monetary Base End of period: No est v ¥543.8T prior.