Kospi tech continues to outperform following US earnings as BoK holds

Asia market update: Kospi tech continues to outperform following US earnings as BOK holds; Yen recovers & Yuan 3-yr highs; AU lithium up on Zimbabwe; US-Iran talks today.

General trend and developments

- Japan's Nikkei 225 hit another high as Asia markets track Wall Street gains on tech rally, however pared all gains as the session continued with the Kospi again outperformed, again by >2% with Samsung up yet another 6% to fresh record highs.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) held rates at 2.5%, as expected, for its 6th straight pause in the current easing cycle. Notable comments from Gov Rhee included MSCI inclusion “could boost foreign equity inflows”, and “govt bond yield-to-policy rate spread is excessive”.

- At 1,421 the Korean Won has risen in recent sessions to levels not seen since late Oct, 2025.

- Nvdia earlier shot up to over $200/shr immediately after reporting Q3 Revenues +62% y/y and 22% just on the quarter, with Q4 outlook again expected to beat significantly on 73.4% margins, but notably the stock dropped back to around flat by the end of after-hours trading. CEO Huang said that Blackwell chip sales are “off the charts”.

- CRM (Salesforce) beat earnings expectations and guided strong, with a decent buy back, but fell 4.5% after-hours.

- Earlier in the day stablecoin infrastructure play Circle was up 35% after tripling analysts’ profit expectations for Q4. Comes amid Bitcoin finally performing better the past couple of days, touching $70K at its peak while Ethereum has retaken $2,000.

- Australian Lithium stocks rose with Linas Rare Earths up another 4% on Zimbabwe’s immediate ban on exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates.

- Latest round of talks between US and Iran later today in Geneva, as the US fleet puts finishing touches on its battle-readiness, now surrounding Iran.

- Japanese yields higher at the front and belly of the curve, as the Yen gained back most of its losses after yesterday’s the BOJ nominations yesterday of academic professors Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to parliament for confirmation, the Yen weakened by a big handle, and the Overnight OIS chances of a rate hike by March fell even further to just 7%, with April also down to 58.0% (vs 67.5% day before) and by June down to 87.0% (vs 96% day before). Volume of May JGB 10-year FUTs also saw 50% greater vol than usual. Overall the two appointees are viewed by markets as a dovish, "reflationist" move. [Both academics have been known for supporting accommodative monetary and active fiscal policies].

- RBA Gov Bullock added nothing new in her fireside chat in Melbourne overnight; Affirmed last inflation read was “too high”.

- China PBOC set the strongest fix since May 11, 2023 (6.92 handle), a record gap above financial press polls ~6.86. Meanwhile offshore Yuan at 6.83 handle is highest since early 2023.

- AI wars heat up as China’s Deepseek reportedly withholding its upcoming model from Nvidia and AMD, while granting Huawei early access.

- US equity FUTs -0.2% to -0.3% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

- Fri Feb 27th JP Jan Ind Prod & Retail Sales, JP Tokyo Feb CPI, IN Q4 GDP, (Fri night Jan US PPI).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Feb 23rd China, Japan.

- Feb 27th Taiwan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.6% at 9,184.

- Australia Jan CPI M/M: 0.4% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e.

- Details for Australia Q4 Capex: The lift in investment was the result of strength in buildings and structures, particularly renewable energy projects.

- Australia Q4 Private Capital Expenditure: 0.4% v 0.0%e.

- New Zealand Feb ANZ Business Confidence (NZD): 59.2 v 64.1 prior.

China/Hong Kong

- Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 4,151; Hang Seng opens +0.9% at 27,019.

- China may see lower rates from Q2 [inline]; cites ‘experts’ – China Securities Journal.

- Top China chipmakers plan to increase production of advanced chip output – Nikkei.

- Pres Xi reiterates to 'weed out' corruption and maintain social stability - Xinhua (comments ahead of annual NPC in early March.

- China Consulate reiterates warning for China citizens to avoid travel to Japan - financial press.

- Hong Kong court overturns tycoon Jimmy Lai's conviction and sentence for fraud offenses (NOTE: 20-year National Security sentence still stands) - financial press.

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.9228 v 6.9321 prior (strongest fix since May 11, 2023 and record gap above financial press polls ~6.86).

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY321B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY80B v injects CNY10B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.7% at 58,995.

- Japan BOJ Jan Core CPI Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9% prior.

- Japan PM Takaichi: Closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.

- Japan PM Takaichi: Reiterates hard to say how specific factors impact FX; Reiterates closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency - comments to parliament.

- Japan government submits nominees for BOJ board to replace members Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa: The candidates are Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato.

- Japan considers easing the corporate governance burden on companies – Nikkei.

- BOJ board member Takata [hawkish dissenter at Sept 2024 policy decision]: Need to be mindful of upside price risks - speech in Kyoto.

- Ex-BOJ Gov Kuroda: Japan needs to move toward tighter fiscal, monetary policy as economy already 'in great shape'.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.6% at 6,121.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) leaves repo rate unchanged at 2.50%; as expected.

- South Korea Q4 Household income +4% y/y on wage growth and bonuses - Yonhap.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Rhee: Govt bond yield-to-policy rate spread is excessive - post-rate decision comments.

Other Asia

- (IN) India regulator SEBI announces categorization and rationalization of mutual fund schemes - financial press.

- (VN) Moody’s: Vietnam debt burden will likely remain lower than peers.

- (TH) Thailand Jan ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.9%e.

- (TH) Thailand, US lead 30 nations in 'largest ever' military drills in SE Asia.

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT): Appoints Thairungroj as new MPC member, effective Feb 26th.

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) cuts benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 1.00%; not expected; vote was 4–2; Prepared to cut rates [further] if outlook shifts; economy is not in 'crisis'.

North America

- (US) DOE Crude: +16.0M v +1.0Me; Gasoline: -1.0M v -0.5Me; Distillate: +3.0M v -2.0Me.

- (US) Treasury $70B 5-year note auction draws 3.615% v 3.747% prior, BTC 2.32 v 2.35 prior and 2.39 over the last 12 auctions.

- (US) USTR Greer: Don't intend to escalate tariffs on China; Reiterates Sections 122, 301, 232 alternatives to tariffs; Tariffs will go up to 15% for 'some' countries; Have discussed excess capacity with China; Expect China tariff level to remain in place.

- (US) Trump and Vance outline Actions to Address Gov't funded Fraud, Waste, and Abuse.

- (US) Sec of State Rubio: Made aware by Cuban authorities about of an incident off the coast of Cuba - press.

Europe

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final CPI Y/Y: 1.7 % V 1.7 %e; Core Y/Y: 2.2 % V 2.2 %e.

- (FR) France Feb Consumer Confidence: 91 v 90e.

- (DE) Germany Mar GfK Consumer Confidence: -24.7 v -24.2 prior.

- (DE) Germany Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e.

- (DE) German Chancellor Merz: Generally welcome any further market opening; German and European companies see issues regarding opening markets in certain sectors in China - comments from China.

- (UK) OFGEM: From Apr 1st to Jun 30th energy prices will go down by £117 or 7% for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by direct debit – statement.

- (UK) UK Foreign Sec: To unveil critical minerals deal with Kazakshstan - Politico.

- (IS) Iceland PM: To hold Referendum on whether to resume EU membership talks - statement.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.2%; ASX 200 +0.5%; Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +2.5%.

Equity S&P500 Futures -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.4%; DAX flat; FTSE100 flat.

EUR 1.1829-1.1771; JPY 156.47-155.76; AUD 0.7137-0.7114; NZD 0.6013-0.5996.

Gold +0.6% at $5,196/oz; BTC +5.3% at $68,420, Crude Oil +0.2% at $65.56/bbl; Copper -0.2% at $6.0335/lb.