Sweden's NIER survey takes the limelight

In focus today

In Sweden, the February NIER Economic Tendency Survey will be released (at 9.00 CET). In January, it was nearly unchanged, with strong firm readings offset by weaker consumer confidence. For inflation, the survey's price plans will provide insight into import price trends amid a stronger SEK.

We will closely monitor developments in the US-Iran talks in Geneva.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, BoJ Governor Ueda signalled the possibility of rate hikes as early as March or April. Japan's government also nominated two academics seen as advocates of economic stimulus to the BoJ board, reflecting PM Takaichi's dovish policy stance. The yen traded near a two-week low yesterday, with USD/JPY trading around the 156-mark.

What happened yesterday

In the US, Trade Representative Greer outlined next step for tariffs, including Section 301, which allow tariff rates - also higher than 15% - to be imposed if investigations find foreign countries apply discriminatory policies against US commerce. Greer cited unresolved capacity issues in China as a reason for maintaining tariffs on China, Vietnam and others.

In the euro area, the final January inflation confirmed the flash print of headline at 1.7% y/y and core at 2.2% y/y, with a slight lowering of the estimates on the second decimal. Services inflation was weaker than in flash, but a less dovish impression emerges when adjusted for constant tax rates. Germany's VAT reduction on restaurants and other one-off factors thus contributed to lower services inflation, yet momentum remains consistent with recent months, reflecting decent underlying price pressure.

In Germany, the final Q4 2025 GDP release showed strong details of the 0.3% q/q expansion, driven by domestic demand. Private consumption rose as households spent more, lowering the savings rate to 9.4% from 10.4%, and worked more hours. Government consumption and construction investments also supported growth. The rebound this year looks promising, with expected real income gains and rising public investments.

In Norway, wage growth slowed to 3.1% y/y in January, as expected. This was mainly due to base effects that will partly reverse in February. However, the underlying trend seems to be declining, which should be good news for the inflation outlook. The trend adjusted LFS-unemployment came in unchanged at 4.5% in January, yet the more accurate NAV-unemployment is falling, signaling a tighter labour market.

In Sweden, the Producer Price Index increased by 2.4% m/m but fell -2.0% y/y in January. Import prices continue to decline due to last year's SEK appreciation. The pass-through to inflation remains limited. The monthly increase was driven mainly by electricity and water distribution, food products, and metals.

In oil space, the eight OPEC+ members are reportedly set to discuss a 137k bpd output hike for April at the 1 March meeting. This would mark a return to production hikes after a three-month pause. Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for short-term oil output and export surges, should a US strike on Iran disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows. Brent Crude is currently trading above the USD 70/bbl mark, as markets await the US-Iran nuclear talks today.

Equities: Global equities had another good day yesterday, rising 0.8%. S&P500 was up 0.8%, with Nasdaq 1.3% and Russell 2000 up 0.4%. Stoxx 600 rose 0.7%. The rally yesterday can either be seen through the 2026-laggard recovering or through the 'AI wave' lens with IT, financials and communication services in the driver seat, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report last night. After spiking well above 20 on Monday, the VIX gradually declined yesterday to just below 18 now. Asian equities are mostly in green overnight with Nikkei and Kospi setting new record highs, amid US futures being down.

Nvidia's earnings report came as the last of the big companies. While Nvidia in itself is not a forward-looking metric for the AI adoption, the solid beat on sales projection of 7bn to 78bn for Q1 shows the continued demand for chips. Also, the earnings beat per share of 9 cents to USD 1.62 shows the strong demand for their product. After an initial spike of 1.5% upon earnings release in the aftermarket, likely driven by the sales, the stock ended broadly unchanged in the aftermarket.

FI and FX: Yesterday's session concluded another day with an overall positive risk sentiment. Whereas credit spreads continued to tighten, movements in foreign exchange and fixed income markets can overall be described as small. EUR/USD lifted marginally and trades now at 1.182, and EUR/SEK as well as NOK/SEK closed the session almost unchanged, despite some intraday volatility. US treasury rates lifted by a couple of basis points, but the impact of the slightly softer than usual demand in the 5y auction did not result in any large reaction.