JOLTS data kicks off massive week for US data

European markets are on the rise this morning, with equities seeking to resume yesterday’s push higher after news of a potential ramp up in tariffs against Russia temporarily hurt market sentiment. The fact that Trump has decided to slash the deadline for Russia to end the war brings risk of a surge in energy prices, with the jump in WTI ramping up inflation concerns.

Coming hot off the heels of the weekend US-EU trade deal, there is an optimism that businesses can now start to operate with greater certainty in Europe, staving off fears of a sharp jump in tariffs when Friday’s deadline comes around. While the trade deal did note the prospect of military equipment purchases from the US, the European defence stocks are on the front foot once again as traders look ahead to a period which will see NATO ramp up spending towards the 5% of GDP mark.

US markets pushed into new highs once again yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at fresh highs as traders look ahead to positive developments from trade negotiations between the US and China in Stockholm. Rumours of yet another 90-day extension to the tariff deadline with China highlight the fact that this deal will be treated differently from the rest. The Chinese have been one of the only countries to engage in a trade war with Trump rather than simply folding, and thus the pathway to a deal will likely be more drawn out in nature. There is an expectation that an extension to the tariff deadline with China will open a pathway for Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to meet in person, heightening hopes for an impending trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

Looking ahead, today brings the first of the week’s jobs data, with the JOLTS job opening metric expected to fall back after a welcome rebound over the past two-months. Many have speculated that the slump in job openings seen over the past three-years is indicative of an underlying issue inherent with the US jobs market. However, we are now roughly back to the pre-pandemic levels of job openings, and thus there will be a greater importance attached to the likes of the core PCE price index, personal spending, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate. On the earnings front, Visa, P&G, Booking Holdings, Starbucks, and PayPal will provide insights over US consumer behaviour.