Inflation surprise Sees Pound Higher

Carney unconcerned by single month’s data.

One thing (one of many) that can be said about Bank of England Governor is that his is calm under pressure!

Having been responsible for steering the “Good Ship Great Britain” through the turbulence of the financial crisis, a little matter like an inflation rate that seems to be running out of control, isn’t going to faze him!

When asked, following a speech to a professional standards conference yesterday, Mark Carney simply commented that “it is unwise to look at one month’s data in isolation and since the MPC has already stated that it sees inflation peaking at 2.7% there is no cause for alarm”. Prior to the Q & A session he also said he felt disappointed by the resignation of his deputy Charlotte Hogg, saying that is was “unfortunate that she paid such a high price for an honest mistake”.

Mr. Carneys term as Governor, which will end in the summer of 2019, has been characterized by his common-sense approach and his tenure will stand up to any examination when compared to some of his illustrious predecessors.

Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index report showed inflation rising from 1.8% in January to 2.3% in February. This went some way to explaining the (even) more hawkish stance adopted by Kristin Forbes at last week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The members of the committee would likely have had access to an “advance” copy of the data so will have based their votes on that.

The pound reacted very positively rising by more than 1.25% to test resistance close to 1.2500 against a troubled dollar.

The pound fell against the Euro which was a testament to the current weakness of the dollar.

With Brexit negotiations proper due to start imminently, some further volatility in the Eur/Gbp cross is likely.

The current weakness being exhibited by the dollar is in no small part due to the “absence from the public eye” of President Trump. While the “Trump Trade” has faded somewhat in the foreign exchange arena it had, until recently, still burned bright in the debt and equity markets.

Traders are now beginning to question how Trump is going to deliver on his tax and economic stimulus promises and this has brought about a correction in the equity market with subsequent risk aversity causing a fall in the dollar against the JPY to a four-month low!

Today we have meetings of the ECB and RBNZ. The ECB meeting is a “non-monetary policy” meeting. This conjures up the vision of several grey-haired men sitting around playing cards! It is odd that they have adopted this stance where every other meeting doesn’t have an interest rate decision and press conference attached.

The RBNZ meet very late tonight (European Time). No change in rates is expected but a bullish tone regarding the economy is sure to drive the currency higher. The “straits cross” (AUD/NZD) has been rising over the past couple of months as Australia has posted record trade surpluses. However, some correction is likely as domestic growth starts to favour New Zealand.