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He's back, what's a mother to do?

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, we made it back to the "hood" yesterday... And once again, my beloved Cardinals are showing that they do a wonderful job of playing to the level of their competition... Having lost 2 of 3 VS the Rockies in Colorado two weeks ago, they had to fight tooth and claw their way to winning VS the Rockies on Monday night... But then they turned around and lost last night to the Rockies... UGH Day game at Busch today, but I won't be taking in the game in person, but rather on TV... The Who greets me this morning with their great song: Won't Get Fooled Again.

After arriving home yesterday, I began to set up my laptop, iPad, and all the other electronics I have here on my writing desk, only to find out that my laptop was not receiving the WiFi... Uh Oh! I've run into this problem a couple of times in the past, and each time it's been something different... All I know is that the Wi FI connection was great when I powered down in Florida, and when I powered up in St. Louis, it no longer received a WiFI connection... UGH! I told you all that to inform you that the Pfennig might be a little later today, as I try every trick in the book to get up and running again. 

The dollar didn't move much yesterday, and it ended the day at the same level it started the day in the BBDXY 1,203... The euro is still reeling from the mini-rally the dollar held about 10 days ago... It'll come back I can feel in my bones... I'm not saying that I guarantee that it will come back, it's just something I feel... 

The rest of the currencies are too still reeling from the dollar's mini-rally... Like a bad hangover, it keeps giving! The price of Gold saw some buyers yesterday, and after seeing short paper traders sink Gold to the level of $55 down for the day on Monday, Gold gained $6 on Tuesday... Silver also saw some short selling, and it drove the price of Silver down 73-cents on Monday, and on Tuesday it gained back 44-cents... Gold closed at $3,347, and Silver closed at $37.84 I hope it doesn't take too long for Gold and Silver to get their mojo back... 

The price of Oil slipped to a $63 handle yesterday, and the 10-year Treasury's yield saw small increase in yield (2 BPS) and ended the day with a 4.29% yield...

In the overnight markets last night... the dollar got sold, and the BBDXY is sitting at 1,199 this morning... Gold is up $ 9 to start our day today, and Silver is up 60-cents... it look like these two didn't have to wait too long to get their mojo back, eh? The dollar seems to be going back to the weak underlying trend, so that's a good direction, as the FOMC rate cuts on the board, are starting to become a reality... Come to think of it, that could be why the short papers trader decided to perform a takedown of Gold & Silver last week? I mean if the markets are all on board that rates are coming down, the dirty dogs could have decided to take down the metal ahead of the rate cut party that would send the metals upward... I'm just saying...

The price of Oil slipped again overnight and trades this morning with a $62 handle... And the 10-year was back to seeing its yield drop overnight and starts tody with a 4.26% yield...

Well, recall that on Monday I said that the Bullion banks were not reacting to the threat of tariffs on Gold like they had the last time the tariffs were talked about... And it was a good thing they didn't, as the POTUS changed his mind and said there would be no tariffs on Gold... All this tariff talk is beginning to give me a rash! They're on, no they're off, no they're on, no they're off... Joe South had a great song... The games people play now, every night and every day now, never saying what they mean now, never meaning what they say... 

And regarding the interest rates... Reuters reported , "The Federal Reserve's vice chair of supervision, Michelle Bowman, on Saturday said recent weak job data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year."

Oh, and this statement was made before the print on Tuesday of the STUPID CPI which showed that y-t-d consumer inflation was 2.7%... and when you take out food and energy (why?) the inflation rate was 3.1%... Either way if you follow the STUPID CPI you might be wondering if Ms. Bowman wanted to recant her forecast that we would see 3 rate cuts this year... Probably not, The Fed Heads are so used to inserting a foot in their mouths, and acting like nothing happened...

And the summit between Trump and Putin will take place this Friday in Alaska... Not exactly a long trip for Putin, eh?  I don't see how this will have any bearings on the war between Russia and Ukraine, because the representative from Ukraine won't be there... What, Trump's going to cede some land withour anyone from Ukraine there to say nyet? I tell you this that the meeting takes place on Friday this week, because I'm sure the markets will stand still awaiting news from the meeting... 

I'm cutting this Pfennig short today, because I'm still trying to get this laptop to connect to the WIFI... so, no FWIW this morning... sorry, but this is getting me all stewed up and I've got to find a way to connect.

Market Prices 8/13/2025: American Style: A$ .6555, kiwi .5988, C$ .7269, euro 1.1719, sterling 1.3579, Swiss $1.2450, European Style: rand 17.5079, krone 10.1939, SEK 9.5212, forint 337.82, zloty 3.6358, koruna 20.8899, RUB 79.69, yen 147.23, sing 1.2800, HKD 7.8500, INR 87.43, China 7.1748, peso 18.53, BRL 5.3873, BBDXY 1,199, Dollar Index 97.77, Oil $62.81, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $38.45, Platinum $1,337.00, Palladium $ 1,128.00, Copper $4.59, and Gold... $3,356.

That's it for today... I have a lot more to say this morning, but technical problems have me reeling right now.. I'll try everything to get this to you today, and remember tomorrow is infusion day for me, so no Pfennig tomorrow.. While I was away my very good friend, Mike Karvas, celebrated his 70th Birthday... This Saturday, we'll celebrate Delaney Grace's 18th Birthday. Did I ever tell you that I'll always know how old she is, because she was born 2 months after my initial cancer surgeries... The Beach Boys take us to the finish line today with their great song: I Get Around... I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and keep it going all weekend! Please Be Good To Yourself!

Author

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler

The Aden Forecast

Chuck has a long history of being associated the investment markets. He started in a regional brokerage firm in 1973, and it was just like the act of Nixon taking the U.S.

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