Technical outlook – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold [Video]

US Nonfarm Payrolls – USD/JPY

Talk of potential currency intervention resurfaced in Japan, sending USDJPY down to 156.15 after a brief surge to an almost three week high on the back of Takaichi's historic election victory. Political uncertainty may not fully dissipate, as Japan's Prime Minister must still demonstrate her ability to deliver promised fiscal stimulus and tax relief without exacerbating Japan’s already heavy debt burden. For now, however, attention is shifting firmly to the U.S. macro data.

The delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls, scheduled unusually for Wednesday at 13:30 GMT, are expected to show a 70k job gain, up from 50k in December, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to slow to 3.6% y/y, reinforcing expectations of easing inflation ahead of Friday’s CPI reading, which is projected at 2.5% - the lowest since June 2025 - from 2.7% previously.

The data arrive amid speculation that Fed nominee Kevin Warsh may revive his reputation as a monetary policy hawk, raising questions about how he might reconcile that stance with President Trump’s push for lower interest rates. Even so, markets do not anticipate any rate cuts until after Warsh formally assumes his role in May.

A softer labor report could pull USD/JPY below its 20- and 50-day SMAs, reopening the 154.00–154.80 support zone. U.S. retail sales on Tuesday may trigger earlier volatility, with growth seen easing to 0.4% m/m. Conversely, stronger data - especially an upside CPI surprise - could keep the pair supported and push it back towards 159.44.

Eurozone Q4 GDP – EUR/USD

Focus in the euro area turns to the Q4 GDP data on Friday, with growth expected to hold at 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, broadly matching the ECB’s outlook for 2026. As this is the second estimate, the release is likely to have a limited market impact.

However, any further upside in EUR/USD could draw scrutiny after the ECB expressed discomfort with the euro’s appreciation since March 2025. While Lagarde downplayed the strength, policymakers may remain vigilant, particularly as the EU pursues trade policies aimed at boosting exports. The bloc recently extended its suspension of tariffs on €93bn of U.S. imports until August 6, with votes on parts of the deal expected around February 24. Technically, the bullish bias targets 1.1900, though caution may emerge near 1.1980–1.2000.

Geopolitics – Gold

Geopolitical risks remain firmly on investors’ radar. U.S.–China tensions have resurfaced after President Trump accused Beijing of conducting secret nuclear tests in 2020, following China’s support for Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister is set to visit the U.S., as U.S.–Iran talks continue. Although both sides described Friday’s discussions in Oman as constructive, key differences remain unresolved.

From a technical perspective, Gold is persistently attempting to secure a daily close above the 5,000 level for the fifth consecutive session. A confirmed break could extend Friday’s rebound toward 5,180, and potentially 5,420 thereafter.