EU news monthly: February 2026

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

India and the European Union have signed a free trade agreement. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called it the “mother of all deals”. The agreement, the largest ever signed by the two sides, comes after nearly two decades of stalled negotiations and at a time when both India and the EU are seeking to reduce their dependence on volatile relations with the United States.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.4% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2025.

On 1 January 2026, 22 out of 27 EU countries had national minimum wages, all except Denmark, Italy, Austria, Finland and Sweden.

The Czech group CSG has successfully entered the stock market. Shares of the arms group Czechoslovak Group rose by more than 30% upon its listing on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange and the Prague Stock Exchange’s unregulated market segment.

Download The Full EU News Monthly

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

GBP/USD flirts with monthly lows around 1.3300

GBP/USD sets aside Friday’s uptick and retreats markedly toward the 1.3300 yardstcik on Monday. Falling crude oil prices following a pause in the Middle East conflict in combination with the recent soft reading in UK inflation appear to play against any BoE tightening ahead of the bank’s event later in the week.

EUR/USD fades the initial move above 1.1400

EUR/USD loses bullish momentum and slips back below the 1.1400 region at the beginning of the week. Hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East appears to lend support to the pair, although uncertainty persists over whether the US and Iran can reach a lasting solution.

Gold trims early gains as Oil prices and US Dollar rebound, Fed decision looms

Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,083 after briefly climbing above $4,100, up 0.77% on the day.

Bitcoin holds above key support amid ETF inflows, US-Iran bombing pause

Bitcoin (BTC) holds above the key 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $63,500, having posted four consecutive weeks of gains. Institutional demand shows mild signs of improvement with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) posting inflows for a third consecutive week.

Bitcoin options traders are dropping their hedges going into the Fed meeting

Bitcoin's options market has turned notably less defensive over the past month, unwinding the downside protection traders built up in June just as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.