What happened?
The Turkish lira surged after Tukey reported inflation climbed to 15% in January. It bolstered analysts’ expectations that monetary policy will be kept tight for a longer period. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its forecast that Turkey's economy will grow by 6% this year. IMF’s projections added optimism and underpinned the Turkish lira. In addition, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Turkey's manufacturing sector rose to 54.4, signaling the industry expansion in the country. As you can see, from the fundamental point of view, the bias is bullish for the lira. Let’s now make some technical analysis to prove our hypothesis.
Technical analysis
Now USD/TRY is trading at the levels unseen since August 2020 and heading towards the key psychological mark of 7.0000. The move below this level will prive the price to the next support of 6.8500. However, we see that the RSI indicator went below 30, giving a sign “hey, trader, the price has entered the oversold area, be ready for the reverse”. Elsewhere, the price has dropped below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, signaling the upcoming pullback to the upside as well. Two indicators have shown that the price should reverse to the upside soon. Resistance levels are 7.3500 and 7.5000.
So, the technical analysis doesn’t coincide with the fundamentals. We might assume that the pair will trade sideways for a while ahead of the further increase.
Anyway, follow Friday’s NFP tomorrow which will define the new vector for the pair.
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