Growth and Collapse in CME

Chaos Clinic for 5/29/2020
 

This chart shows the CME stock, essentially the CME derivatives exchange,over the past 18 years.

Overlaid on the chart is a mathematical power curve I discovered in my research into how markets work. It is based on the square root of a Fibonacci series. It also has a 360 degree cycle scale,which helps determine natural cycles behind the growth. Markets are moved by energy, and energy adds together based on mathematics.

This curve is essentially flat until the 180 degree point, then if rises faster, and faster, and faster. Then it collapses. My best estimate of the cycle involved in this example is about 18 years, close to the cycle of the Moon's node.

Another principle of energy addition is that energy adds harmonically, in circles of 360 degrees. This is clear in CME, where the rally moved up 180 degrees, from 45 to 225 degrees.

The harmonics are also apparent post peak. The first down move was 90 degrees, from 225 to 135. The bounce since then was 45 degrees to 180.

Longer term, these power curves often have a matching declining curve, of about the same duration as the half cycle up in what is a "time domain resonance." That suggests the down move could take about 9.3 years.