Groundhogs day in Asia for Nasdaq FUTs, earnings from AMZN and INTC weigh

Asia Market Update: Groundhogs day in Asia for Nasdaq FUTs, earnings from AMZN and INTC weigh; BOJ decision accommodated both the hawks and doves; Ueda’s comments are due at 6:30 GMT; RBA decision is due on Nov 3rd.

General trends and developments

-Nasdaq FUTs opened -1.3% at 29,180 (vs. 29,562 at the close), while S&P500 FUTs opened -0.6% at 7,709 (vs. 7,754 at the close) at the 18:00pm EDT re-open. Tech earnings were again the culprit with today’s losses being driven by results from firms including Amazon and Intel. Recall, yesterday’s downside catalysts included the financial reports from Google and Samsung. Little initial impact was seen on Japanese markets from the BOJ’s decision to accelerate the pace of selling its ETF holdings. [The pace change is effective from Jan 2027; to accelerate the pace of sales of ETF holdings to approx ¥860B v ~¥330B prior]

-Hawkish and dovish components seen in BOJ statement: The BOJ voted 8 to 1 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected. Hawkish board member Takata again dissented as he favored a 25bps rate hike to 1.50%. Interestingly, there was no dissenting vote from fellow hawkish BOJ official Tamura. Markets will now look for clues about the BOJ’s thinking regarding the Dec rate decision when Gov Ueda comments at his press conference [6:30 GMT]. The market probability for a Dec rate increase was still >80% ahead of today’s rate decision.

-In line with prior press reports, the BOJ acknowledged that the price trend is generally consistent with the 2.0% inflation target. As such, the BOJ raised its FY27 CPI (ex-fresh food & energy) forecast to 2.7% (vs. 2.6% prior) and FY28 CPI forecast to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% prior) in the latest Quarterly Outlook (staff projections), while statement reiterated its 2% inflation target and upside price risks.

-Incidentally, the Oct Tokyo CPI data was mixed, but remained above the BOJ’s 2.0% inflation target: Japan Tokyo’s October headline CPI came in slightly above expectations at +2.8% y/y (vs. 2.7% expected). However, underlying inflation (ex-fresh food and energy) came in slightly below expectations at +2.6% (vs. +2.7% expected) from a lower revised +2.9% reading (vs. +3.0% prior), indicating domestic energy retail price pressures. Unsurprisingly the inflationary environment has weighed on retail sales and Japanese consumer firms. Hence, September retail sales decreased -0.7% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected) and +2.3% y/y (vs. +3.3% expected).
Japan and South Korea’s Sept industrial production figures crushed the ests: Japan’s September industrial production increased +2.2% m/m (vs. +1.2% expected) and +1.9% y/y (vs. +1.5% expected). Japanese manufacturers see further improvements during Oct and Nov [+5.1% and +0.8% m/m respectively] -South Korea’s September industrial production increased +1.2% (vs. +0.6% expected) and +9.0% m/m (vs. +3.1% expected). South Korea’s Ministry of Data and Statistics document noted that the manufacturing sub-component increased +9.9% m/m (vs. -4.9% prior).

-US Q3 and Sept data was mixed: Ahead Tuesday's US midterm elections, President Trump in a post on Truth Social stated- that he is pleased with today's GDP results, noting that core inflation remains low. The September PCE inflation headline PCE increased +0.5% m/m and +3.6% y/y, while the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE increased +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, all in line with expectations. However, the previous month's core PCE m/m reading was revised higher from +0.2% to +0.3%, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent. Meanwhile, Q3 advance GDP annualized q/q came in at +3.4% (vs. +3.2% expected), while the personal consumption for the quarter came in at +2.5% (vs. +2.4% expected).

-Binance in a statement today noted a temporary suspension of all deposits, withdrawals and Alpha trading following unusual transfers from its hot wallets. Binance noted that the current verified total frozen is $2.54B pledging to cover any potential losses. As a result, Bitcoin decreased -1% to $77,646, its lowest level in six weeks.

- WTI Crude and Brent Oil FUTs re-opened +0.8% to $102.81/bbl (vs. $102.00/bbl prior) and +0.7% to $111.53/bbl (vs. $110.80/bbl prior) respectively. Ukraine has reportedly suspended strikes against Russian oil refineries, with the pause expected to last until after US midterm elections and potentially deeper into November, according to the WSJ.
President Trump previously announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on October 11th, 2026. Meanwhile, Iran remains uncertain going into another weekend.

-US equity FUTs -1.8% to -0.9% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

-Mon Oct 26th: FR BTF Auctions, KR Oct Consumer Confidence, (Mon night, KR Preliminary Q3 GDP, CN Sept YTD Industrial Profit, JP BoJ Core CPI).

-Tue Oct 27th: EU Sept M3 Money Supply, MX Sept Trade Balance, US Sept Preliminary Durable Goods Order & Core Durable Goods Order, US Oct CB Consumer Confidence, (Tue night, AU Q3 CPI, NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, TH BOT Interest Rate Decision, HK Sept Trade Balance).

-Wed Oct 28th: HK Sept Trade Balance, IN Sept Industrial Production, DE 10-Year Bund Auction, CA BoC Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press-Conference, RU Sept GDP + Industrial Production, US FOMC Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, (Wed night, NZ Oct ANZ Business Confidence, JP Oct Household Confidence).

-Thu Oct 29th: US Q3 Preliminary PCE & Core PCE + Sept PCE & Core PCE, US Q3 Preliminary GDP, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, EU ECB Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, US Q4 Preliminary Atlanta Fed GDPNow, UR NBU Interest Rate Decision, (Thu night, KR Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales, JP Oct Tokyo CPI & Core CPI, JP Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales + Unemployment Rate, AU Q3 PPI, JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, TH Sept Industrial Production + Trade Balance, TW Q3 Preliminary GDP, HK Sept M3 Money Supply).

-Fri Oct 30th: FR Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, ES Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, IT Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, DE Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, EU Q3 Preliminary GDP, MX Q3 Preliminary GDP, CA Aug GDP, US Oct Chicago PMI, RU Sept GDP, (Fri night, CN Oct Mnfg/Non-Mnfg/Composite PMI).

-Sat Oct 31st: (Sat night, KR Oct Preliminary Trade Balance).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Oct 26th: New Zealand, Taiwan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens +0.4% at 8,926.

-(AU) Australia Q3 PPI Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prior.

-(AU) Australia Sept Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.4% prior.

-(AU) Australia reports FYTD underlying cash deficit: A$19.5B.

-(AU) Australia Corporate Regulator ASIC: Prediction markets not in public interest.

-(AU) ANZ: Raising 31st December Brent Crude oil forecast from $95/bbl to $105/bbl.

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B in 2.50% May 2030 Bonds: Avg Yield: 4.7891% v 5.0368% prior ; bid-to-cover: 5.04x v 4.34x prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Consumer Confidence: 96.2 v 97.6 prior.

-(NZ) RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee Member Carl Hansen: '50-50' on December hike.

-(NZ) RBNZ names Stan Christian Director of Prudential Supervision, effective Nov 1st.

-GFZ: Magnitude 6.2 earthquake strikes 43km ESE of port-Olry Vanuatu.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens -1.3% at 3,605; (HK) Hang Seng Index opens +0.2% at 23,011.

-(CN) China SAMR [competition regulator] holds symposium on fair competition: Notes fight against corruption remains grave and complex; noted meeting involving internet platforms, auto and pharma executives.

-(CN) China tightens delisting rules as firms restructure - China Securities Times.

-(CN) China Communist Party Discipline Official Zhang Fuhai: >7.9M people were disciplined over the past 14 years.

-(CN) China 30-year Bond FUTs -0.5%, largest drop in 1 month - US financial press.

-(CN) China's onshore yuan strengthens to 6.66/USD, strongest level since June 6th, 2026.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7138 v 6.7147 prior (strongest level since February 2nd, 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY1.02T in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo & 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY15B v injects CNY115B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens -0.5% at 64,344.

-(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.25%; AS EXPECTED; makes rate policy decision by 8-1 vote; affirms will continue to raise interest rates in response to the data and financial conditions.

-(JP) JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.7%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.6%E.

-(JP) BOJ QUARTERLY OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND PRICES STAFF PROJECTIONS: Affirms price trend is generally consistent with target, underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with target; affirms risks to prices are skewed to the 'upside'; affirms will continue to raise interest rates in response to the data and financial conditions.

-(JP) JAPAN SEPT PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.2% V 1.2%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.5%E.

-(JP) JAPAN SEPT RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.7% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 3.3%E.

-(JP) Japan Sept Jobless Rate: 2.4% v 2.5%e.

-(JP) Japan Sept Annualized Housing Starts: 714K v 751Ke; Y/Y: % v 2.9%.

-(JP) Japan METI Reports Sept Total Oil Product Sales: -10.4% y/y.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: To raise target gasoline price at pump by ¥5 per litre each month starting Dec towards spring [EU market close].

-(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: ¥1.1T reserve funds to support fuel price measures - Tokyo, Japan.

-(JP) Japan JERA Executive: We have secured sufficient LNG stocks to meet our needs through December.

-(JP) Japan METI : Affirms no plan to release oil reserves in Nov as confirms expects to secure 100% of oil for Nov.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Refrain from commenting on BoJ price view - Tokyo, Japan.

-(JP) Japan Trade Min Akazawa: To begin process for Chubu Electric improvement order.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens -3.0% at 5,760.

-(KR) South Korea Sept Industrial Production M/M: 9.0% v 3.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.6%e.

-(KR) South Korea President Lee approval rating falls to 39% (vs. 40% prior) - Gallup.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar following Kospi 200 FUTs falling by -5%, program trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) South Korea National Security Advisor Wi: South Korea to firmly respond to North Korea's crossing military demarcation line.

-(KR) North Korea's Defense Ministry: South Korea, US freedom flag drill increase tensions on the Korean peninsula. To maintain a strong deterrent posture against threats from US and its followers..

-(KR) North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un calls for his nation to seize absolute superiority in drone technology - KCNA state media.

-(KR) South Korea 10-year Bond FUTs rise on planned Nov bond issuance reduction.

Other Asia

-(IN) India AI firm AM Intelligence considers $3B funding for Nvidia chips - US financial press.

-(VN) Vietnam Trade Ministry: October trade surplus estimated at $6.8B (v $1.3B in September).

-(PH) Philippines Sept Trade Balance: -$5.2B v -$5.0Be.

-(SG) Singapore Sept M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.1% v 5.9% prior.

-(PH) Philippine Central Bank: October inflation likely within range of 7.1-8.1%.

-(PH) Philippine State Seismology Agency raises alert level at Mayon volcano after eruption.

-(TH) Thailand Sept ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e.

-(SG) Singapore Sept Unemployment Rate: 2.0% v 2.0% prior.

North America

-(US) SEPT PCE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.6%E; Core PCE Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e [US market close].

-(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 3.4% V 3.2%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.8% V 3.4%E [US market close].

-(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.2% V 3.2%E; CORE PCE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 2.5% V 2.4%E [US market close].

-(US) SEPT PERSONAL INCOME: 0.2% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.5% V 0.6%E [US market close].

-(US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.894% V 5.085% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.46X V 2.42X PRIOR AND 2.48X OVER THE LAST 12 AUCTIONS [US market close].

-(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 194K V 198KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.70M V 1.72ME [US market close].

-(US) Dallas Sept Trimmed Mean PCE (m/m) +2.8% v +2.0% prior [US market close].

-(US) Pres Trump: It was a great morning from the standpoint of the GDP data [US market close].

-(US) Sec of State Rubio to meet with Saudi Foreign Minister at 4:10pm ET.

-(US) President Trump in-person Iowa rally replaced with a tele-rally - CBS.

-(US) Brightspeed said to prepare for bankruptcy by as early as Dec - WSJ.

-(US) AMZN Reports Q3 $1.89 adj v $2.01e, Rev $201.9B v $202.5Be - Guides Q4 Rev $240.0-247.0B v $245.6Be, operating income $28.5-33.5B v $33.2Be [US market close].

-(US) SNDK Reports Q1 $49.51 adj v $47.00e, Rev $11.0B v $10.7Be; Guides Q2 above est; Announced eight-for-one forward stock split, effective November 19, 2026 - Guides Q2 $55.00-57.00 v $52.16e, Rev $12.2-12.6B v $12.0Be [US market close].

-(US) CAT Reports Q3 $7.20 v $7.12e, Rev $20.7B v $20.6Be [US market close].

-(US) MRK Reports Q3 $2.61 v $2.12e, Rev $18.1B v $17.2Be; Raises FY26 outlook [US market close].

-(US) INTC Reports Q3 $0.52 adj v $0.39e, Rev $16.5B v $16.4Be; Guides Q4 EPS, Rev below consensus [US market close].

-(US) MA Reports Q3 $5.31 adj v $5.14e, Rev $9.80B v $9.63Be [US market close].

-(US) MSFT Files to sell senior unsecured notes in 10 tranches; Amounts, rates and maturities unspecified [**Note: MSFT taps US high-grade bonds for first time since 2017] [US market close].

-(US) CART Confirms to be acquired by Doordash at $65/shr, valuing it at ~$17B; 26% premium [US market close].

-(US) SPCX Anthropic reportedly contributed to 34.5% of SpaceX's revenue during Q3; Anthropic is now SpaceX's largest customer - press [US market close].

-(US) BINANCE.IPO *Statement: User funds remain safe. Withdrawals to resume as soon as issue is resolved; notes the current verified total frozen is $2.54B.

-(US) COIN Follow up: CEO: Blocking sends to compromised wallets [on Binance security incident].

-(BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 1.5% v 1.6%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.4%e [US market close].

-(CO) Colombia VP Restrepo: Colombia fiscal bill seeks to avoid job losses - Bogota, Colombia.

-(CL) Chile Codelco: Has decided to terminate the employment of eight executives and professionals from the chuquicamata, ministro hales and salvador divisions, as well as its corporate headquarters.

Europe

-(EU) ECB LEAVES KEY RATES UNCHANGED; AS EXPECTED; Reiterates not pre-committing to any particular rate path [EU market close].

-(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Decision to hold was unanimous; Council debated if hike would be appropriate, but based on uncertainty and unchanged underlying inflation we decided to keep rates on hold - Q&A [EU market close].

-(EU) ECB PRESIDENT CHRISTINE LAGARDE TO STEP DOWN EARLY ON FEB 7TH - ECB statement [EU market close].

-(UR) UKRAINE PAUSES STRIKES ON RUSSIAN REFINERIES - WSJ.

-(EU) EURO ZONE OCT ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: 96.9 V 97.5E [EU market close].

-(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde on bond market: Should market developments threaten transmission, we have instruments to respond; We look at 10-year but also at entire bond curve (asked about French bonds) [EU market close].

-(EU) Reportedly ECB Policymakers still anticipate a rate hike in Dec followed by a pause - press [EU market close].

-(EU) Greece PM calls on EU to deploy more naval assets to the Red Sea Aspides mission.

-(RU) RUSSIA STRIKES MILITARY AND ENERGY FACILITIES IN UKRAINE'S KYIV AND DNIPROPETROVSK REGION - RUSSIAN NEWSWIRE QUOTING DEFENSE MINISTRY.

-(DE) German Chancellor Merz: Germany is willing to act with like-minded partners in Europe and the world to defend and further develop the rules-based global economic order - South Korea.

-(UK) Oct Lloyds Business Barometer: 47 v 41 prior (update).

-(UK) UKMTO: Received a report of an incident 25NM northeast of Khasab, Oman in the Strait of Hormuz [seperate incident].

-(UK) UKMTO: Report of incident 25NM Northeast of Khasab, Oman.

-(BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7% prior [EU market close].

-(RO) Romania sells total RON1.474 vs. RON800M indicated in 2031 and 2033 bonds.

-(RO) Romania sells RON1.11B vs. RON500M indicated in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 6.16%, bid-to-cover: x.

Middle East

-(IR) Iran confirms letter from VP Vance but yet to respond; Insists on US meeting our 7 conditions and anything contrary will be unacceptable - Iran press [EU market close].

-(SA) Saudi-led Coalition: Intercepted cruise missile launched by Yemen's Houthis towards Kingdom's Western region.

-(SA) Saudi-led Coalition: Intercepts Houthi drone in Mecca region.

Levels as of 01:20am EDT

Nikkei 225 -2.4%; ASX 200 +0.2%; Hang Seng +1.7%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -4.2%.

Equity S&P500 Futures -0.9%; Nasdaq100 -1.8%; DAX -0.2%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

EUR 1.1215-1.1170; JPY 157.90-157.12; AUD 0.7044-0.7018; NZD 0.5644-0.5624.

Gold -0.5% at $4,003/oz; BTC -1.9% at $78,725; WTI Crude Oil +1.2% at $103.25/bbl; Copper -0.4% at $6.5735/lbs.