Gold watch: Pullback to power rally

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to hold its bullish weekly posture, gaining strength amid a trifecta of global concerns—persistent U.S. inflation, rising tariff tensions between the U.S. and China, and cautious tones from the Federal Reserve, as reported by FXStreet. Despite strong U.S. economic data today—including retail sales rising 0.6% and the Philly Fed Index jumping to 15.9—gold has resisted significant downside, showcasing its safe-haven resilience. Technically, the metal remains supported above the $3,246.55 low of June 29, 2025, which completed a 7-swing Elliott corrective wave 2, offering a structural base for the current rally. The ongoing advance is unfolding as wave (iii) of ((iii)), often the strongest leg in an impulse sequence.

On the short-term chart, gold placed wave i of (iii) at $3,377.48, and now appears to be in a minor pullback in wave ii of (iii). According to Fibonacci projections, the pullback is expected to be shallow, possibly correcting only 38.2% to 50% of the wave i rally. This implies a possible intraday drop toward $3,319.50 or at worst $3,306.30, which is the lowest leg length expected today, assuming the bullish wave count remains intact. So long as $3,219.50 (wave (ii) low) holds, the structure favors further upside. The immediate bullish confirmation comes with a break above $3,452.50, aiming for $3,589 or even $3,650+ in the coming days.

From a Fibonacci perspective, today’s projected pullback aligns with a 0.382 retracement from $3,377.48 to the $3,246.55 base, suggesting buyers are likely to re-enter aggressively in the $3,306–$3,319 range. This confluence of wave count and Fibonacci retracement forms a key buy zone, reinforcing the view that gold remains bullish in structure, regardless of short-term USD strength.

In conclusion, gold continues to navigate a choppy macro backdrop with structural precision. As long as it respects key support zones, the metal remains poised for further gains, with any 3, 7, or 11-swing pullback presenting a renewed buying opportunity. Stay golden — both technically and fundamentally.