Gold retreats to $3,338.15 ahead of Fed chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Global stocks fell and gold eased Thursday as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s three‑day Jackson Hole symposium, with attention on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech for clues on a potential September rate cut; U.S. Treasury yields ticked up as the event began.

Oil futures rose on signs of robust U.S. demand and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict resolution. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened by 0.35% against a basket of major currencies.

Markets remain in a cautious, wait-and-see stance ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow at 10 ET and the September FOMC meeting. After a surprisingly weak payrolls report earlier this month, traders increased bets on a September rate cut, further encouraged by consumer price data indicating limited tariff-driven inflation. However, expectations eased slightly after the release of the July Fed minutes. As of Thursday, markets are now pricing in a 79.6% chance of a September rate cut, down from 83% on Wednesday, according to LSEG data (IRPR).

Gold is up more than 25% year-to-date, hitting a record in April. Since then, it has largely traded sideways as investors weigh the fallout from the US-led trade war, concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical tensions, with central-bank buying helping to underpin prices.

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

• Gold is currently trading within a large symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart.
• Resistance from the descending trendline off the April 2025 all-time high (3,500) caps gains near 3,389–3,410.
• Support is provided by an upward-trending line around the 3,325 zone.
• Price action is expected to remain within the 3,350–3,325 range for now.
• A confirmed breakout above or below these levels should signal the next directional move.
• A strong, sustained break below 3,325 could lead to sharp declines toward 3,311 and then 3,268.
• Alternatively, a gradual rise to 3,350 followed by a rally to 3,389 is likely.
• Traders remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow.

Gold 4 Hourly chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

• GLD is retesting the rising trendline support from the May 2025 low of 288.50, currently trading between 307 and 304.
• The ETF formed a double-top on August 8, 2025, and gapped down the following Monday.
• Expect GLD to gradually drift toward 305–304 support zone in a cautious manner.
• Holding this support could trigger a rally to 308–310 region.
• A decisive break below 304 would open the possibility of the 301–300 area.

GLD 4 Hourly chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2006, GLD has posted an August gain of 1.5% in 60% of the years, while September has seen a decline of 0.80% in 37% of the years.