Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD eyes $1,931, as US real yields turn positive for first time since 2020

Gold Price sees no relief amid a positive shift in the US real yields.
A broad USD retreat and mixed market mood fail to inspire XAUUSD bulls.
Daily technical picture is turning in favor of bears ahead of Fed’s Beige Book.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold Price hit the lowest level in five days at $1,944, as it extended its correction from six-week highs of $1,998 reached earlier this week. The relentless surge in the US Treasury yields on heightening expectations of faster Fed rate increases smashed the non-interest-bearing XAUUSD. The 10-year benchmark yields clocked over three-year highs of 2.95% while the real rates turned positive for the first time since 2020. The hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, as he sees the year-end rates at 2.25%-2.5%, and then likely higher, added to the aggressive Fed’s tightening bets.

Meanwhile, the upbeat tone in the yields combined with the unstoppable USD/JPY upsurge drove the US dollar to a fresh two-year top against its main rivals, collaborating with the downfall in Gold Price. The US stocks rally on a strong start to the earnings season exacerbated the pain in the bright metal.

Gold Price is looking to extend the previous sell-off on Wednesday, despite the retreat in the US dollar and the yields. Risk sentiment remains in a weak spot, as of writing, and should it worsen going forward, the US dollar is likely to see the renewed safe-haven demand, which could prompt the yellow metal to resume the downside. Concerns over the Ukraine crisis and global recession, in the face of elevated inflation and hawkish central banks, are likely to keep investors on the edge.

Gold Price awaits the Fed’s Beige Book for fresh insights on the world’s most powerful central bank’s policy normalization plans. Speeches from Fed officials will be also closely followed ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the IMF event on Thursday.

Gold Price Chart: Daily chart

Gold’s daily chart shows that the price is testing the critical 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,944. A sustained break below the latter is needed to extend the correction towards the ascending 50-DMA at $1,931. Failure to resist above the latter could open floors towards the April lows of $1,915.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gravitating around the midline, unable to offer a clear directional view, at this moment.

On the flip side, the $1,950 psychological barrier could challenge the road to recovery in XAUUSD. Friday’s low of $1,961 could offer stiff resistance if the recovery sustains. Acceptance above that barrier could revive hopes for another upswing towards the key $2,000 level.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD remains depressed 0.7000, awaits FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its recent recovery move and trades with a negative bias below 0.7000 in Wednesday's Asian session. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar attracts some dip-buyers after a fresh leg up in US bond yields, keeping the pair under pressure despite hawkish RBA expectations. All eyes now remain on the FOMC Minutes.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,100

Gold now manages to regain some balance, returning to the area above the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce following the closing bell in Europe on Wednesday. The yellow metal’s sharp pullback comes in tandem with marked gains in the US Dollar and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fall liquidating $550M

Bitcoin’s correction follows a recent rejection due to supply around $87,200. Altcoins are generally in a correction trend, as Ethereum edges lower toward the next key support at $2,600 and Ripple extends its down leg near the $1.45 demand area.

Fed Minutes set to provide some insight into the timing of next rate hikes

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Minutes of September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Investors are eager for some details that shed light on the extent and the timing of the central bank´s tightening cycle after approving the first interest rate hike in three years in September.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.