Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD under modest selling pressure

XAU/USD Current price: $4,680

• The Trump-Xi Jinping meeting revolved around the Iran war, left little of substance.
• Wall Street recovered on the back of a tech-sector bounce.
• XAU/USD’s near-term picture looks negative, momentum still missing.

Spot Gold is under moderate selling pressure for a third consecutive day, trading around $4,680. The US Dollar (USD), however, trades with a firm tone against most major rivals, pressuring fresh weekly highs across the FX board. The Greenback found some market favor ahead of the American open, later extending its gains with little to justify the rally.

There is no progress in the Iran war, with Washington and Tehran in a stalemate, and no potential date for further negotiations. In the meantime, United States (US) President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, with both leaders praising the outcome but delivering little of substance. If something, President Trump stated that Xi Jinping is willing to “help” with Iran, but also that China wants to keep buying Oil from the Middle East country.

At the same time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that dozens of oil vessels, including Chinese ones, passed through the Strait of Hormuz under Iran’s management protocols.

On the data front, the US reported that Retail Sales were up by 0.5% in April, as expected, down from the 1.6% recorded in March. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 9 increased by 211K, worse than the 205K expected and the previous revised 199K.

Finally, it's worth noting Wall Street rallied on the back of tech stocks, reversing recent losses. Friday’s macroeconomic calendar has little of interest, with the US publishing April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a modest bearish bias as it slips below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,697.68 and the 20-period SMA at $4,702.73 while holding above a mildly bearish 100-period SMA at $4,659.60. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims south at around 47, while a slightly negative Momentum indicator reading hints that downside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 200-period SMA near $4,697.68, with the 20-period SMA around $4,702.73 forming a nearby cap that could contain recovery attempts. Further advances will likely meet sellers around the $4,720 price zone. On the downside, the 100-period SMA at $4,659.60 offers the first layer of support, ahead of the weekly low at $4,638.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)