Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unable to attract investors ahead of key US data

XAU/USD Current price: $4,995

• Upbeat United States employment figures boosted demand for the Greenback.
• The US macroeconomic calendar includes first-tier data on Friday.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase around $5,000 with a bearish tilt.

Gold price remains stuck around the $5,000 mark, unable to attract investors despite the market’s mood swings. The bright metal remains afloat despite the US Dollar (USD) strength following hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, showing that, in the January meeting, officials noted that “a two-way description of the path of policy could be supported,” hinting at opening for interest rate hikes, should inflation keep pressing higher.

The Greenback gained additional strength early in the American session on Thursday, following the release of upbeat employment-related data: Initial Jobless Claims rose by 206K in the week ended February 14, much better than the expected 225K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 16.3 in February ,much better than the 8.5 posted in the previous month. On a negative note, the Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $70.3 billion in December, worsening from the $-53 billion posted in November.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday’s data, as the United States (US) will publish the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s favorite inflation gauge. The core annual figure is foreseen at 2.9% after posting 2.8% in November, moving further away from the Fed’s goal of 2%.

The US will also publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with annualized growth foreseen at 3%, down from the 4.4% posted in Q3. Finally, S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is neutral, with a modest negative tilt. The pair keeps trading between a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at $4,954 and a directionless 100 SMA capping the upside at around the current level. The 200-period SMA, in the meantime, maintains its bullish slope at around $4,860. Meanwhile, technical indicators turned modestly lower but remain just above their midlines.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades just below a mildly bullish 20-day SMA at $5,006.86, while the longer moving averages remain well below the current level, heading firmly north. The Momentum indicator turned higher and advances above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 54. A daily close above the 20-day SMA would refocus upside pressure and expose the $5,030 price zone, while failure to hold above the $4,950 should open the door for a steeper decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)