Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stuck around $4,300 as markets turn cautious

XAU/USD Current price: $4,296.14

• United States inflation and employment data scheduled for later this week spur caution.
• Multiple central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, including the ECB, the BoE, and the BoJ.
• XAU/USD struggles to retain the $4,300 mark in a slow start to the week.

Spot Gold trades around $4,300 at the start of the new week, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. The bright metal found some near-term demand throughout the first half of the day amid persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness. The Greenback, however, found some near-term demand in the American session, as Wall Street turned sharply lower following modest pre-opening gains.

The dismal mood seems to have been triggered by headlines indicating Kevin Hassett, United States (US) President Donald Trump’s favorite candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, has received some pushback from top Trump advisers, according to people familiar with the matter. According to the same sources, the push-back resulted from Hassett being “too close” to the president. Another candidate,  former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is now starting to sound louder.

Other than that, cautiousness reappeared ahead of first-tier US releases. The country will publish the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Tuesday, which will include some of the October missing figures, and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) update on Thursday. The data could shape market bets on the Fed's monetary policy path for 2026.

Beyond US data, several major central banks will announce their decisions on monetary policy, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it currently trades at $4,296.14, with the risk skewed to the upside. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, and all three slope higher, underscoring the bullish bias. The 20-day SMA at $4,183.50 offers nearby dynamic support. In the meantime, technical indicators remain well above their midlines, but have turned flat, reflecting the ongoing pause in demand for the bright metal.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is at risk of extending its current downward correction. Still, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20-period SMA rising above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and providing immediate support at $4,280. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned sharply lower but holds above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, also heading lower. The intraday peak at $4,350 provides resistance ahead of the all-time high in the $4,380 price zone.

$4,300 at the start(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)