Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD near the base of its recent range

XAU/USD Current price: $4,190

• The US will release the ADP 4-week Employment Change and JOLTS on Tuesday.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to trim interest rates by 25 bps later this week.
• XAU/USD trades with a soft tone in the near term, holds within familiar levels.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone in the American session on Monday, easing from an early peak of $4,219 a troy ounce and currently hovering in the $4,190 region. The US Dollar (USD) shed some ground at the beginning of the day amid mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a dovish monetary policy decision.

Back when policymakers met in October, Chairman Jerome Powell noted a December interest rate cut was not to be taken for granted, due to the uncertainty related to the lack of official data throughout the federal government shutdown. The government reopened, and data is slowly back, but that’s not behind speculation of an upcoming rate cut: Market participants believe the Fed will act on the back of a deteriorated labor market.

Some clues on the employment situation will appear on Tuesday, as ADP will release the 4-week average Employment Change, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the JOLTS Job Openings reports for September and October. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday. As investors gear up for the announcements, price action across the FX board remains subdued.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD losses steam in the near term, and the 4-hour chart shows it trades at $4,190.24, below the day's opening price by $19.89. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) turned marginally lower but remains above rising 100- and 200-period SMAs, preserving a broader positive bias. Price holds above the medium- and long-term averages yet sits beneath the 20 SMA, keeping the immediate tone capped; the 20 SMA provides near-term resistance at $4,206.92. At the same time, the Momentum indicator slips below 0 and extends lower, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads south at around 44, supporting the ongoing bearish case. A recovery through the short-term average would ease pressure and open room for a rebound, while failure to reclaim it would keep sellers in control.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA advancing well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, reflecting buyers’ control. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline but has eased from recent highs, indicating buying interest is losing steam. Finally, the RSI eases but stands at 58, limiting the bearish potential in the wider perspective. As long as price remains above the 20-day SMA, an upside extension could follow, while a pullback would eye the 100-day SMA at $3,784.84 as next support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)