Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds ground above $4,450

XAU/USD Current price: $4,461

• Generally encouraging United States macroeconomic data failed to impress.
• China will release Trade Balance figures in the upcoming Asian session.
• XAU/USD corrected lower, buyers still hold the grip.

The bright metal trades with a softer tone on Wednesday, with XAU/USD now hovering in the $4,460 price zone. The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone in the American afternoon after the release of generally encouraging United States (US) data, while the prevalent optimistic mood limited demand for safe-haven assets.

The US released the ADP Employment Change report, which showed that the private sector added 41K new job positions in December, slightly worse than the 47K anticipated but better than the November revised figure of -29K. Also, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of November stood at 7.146 million, down from the revised 7.449 million openings recorded in October.

Finally, the country released the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which showed that economic activity in the sector continued to expand in December, with the index rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November.

Other than that, speculative interest retains a certain level of caution. Market participants await additional data to place bets on future central banks’ monetary policy decisions, with the focus particularly on the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday, may shed some light on the matter.

In the upcoming Asian session, China will release the December Trade Balance, while Japan will publish the December Consumer Confidence Index.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD decline did not interrupt the dominant bullish trend. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades above all its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing near-term support at $4,436.38 while advancing above the 100- and 200-period SMAs. Meanwhile, technical indicators have corrected from overbought levels, but managed to bounce from around their midlines, hinting at limited selling interest.

In the daily chart, the 20-day SMA heads firmly north, well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, underscoring buyer control. The 20-day SMA at $4,370.98 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline but eases, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sits at 62, also losing upward strength.

XAU/USD seems poised to extend the ongoing consolidative phase ahead of the next catalyst.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)