Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bounces back to its comfort zone

XAU/USD Current price: $4,463

• Upbeat United States underpinned the US Dollar ahead of key events on Friday.
• XAU/USD trades with a neutral bias, long-term risk skews to the upside.
• XAU/USD is neutral in the near term, with bulls retaining the better odds.

Gold keeps trading within familiar levels on Thursday, with the XAU/USD pair currently hovering around $4,460 during Asian trading hours. The Greenback found some near-term demand against most major rivals, boosted by encouraging United States (US) employment data, yet the cautious mood maintains the bright metal afloat.

The country released the December Challenger Job Cuts report, which showed that US-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts in December, down 50% from the 71,321 job cuts announced in November. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 3 rose by 208K, better than the anticipated 210K, although higher than the previous 200K. Additionally, the 4-week moving average decreased by 7.25K, bringing it to 211.75K from the revised average of the previous week.

The US Dollar (USD) firmed up with the news, although gains were limited as market participants await key US events scheduled for Friday. On the one hand, the US will publish the December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The country is expected to have added 60K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.5%. The country will also release the preliminary estimate of the January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which includes inflation expectations.

On the other hand, the US Supreme Court will announce its decision on President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to create tariffs. If the Court rules against Trump, the US government could face a potential fight of roughly $150 billion in refunds for levies already paid.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture is neutral to bullish, as in the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades just around a bullish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which rises above also bullish100 and 200 SMAs. The 20 SMA currently stands at $4,456.67, while the 100 SMA at $4,402.35 offers support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator stands flat within neutral levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator loses upward strength at around 56.

A sustained hold above the short-term average would keep buyers in control, while a loss of traction could shift the focus to initial support at the rising 100 SMA. At the same time Momentum’s contraction points to potential consolidation, but the RSI in the mid-50s leaves room for an extension if price respects support. A close below the 100 SMA would dent the positive tone and expose deeper pullbacks, whereas stability above it would maintain the prevailing upward bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)