Don’t forget about the USD

Silver is now moving back and forth intraday by as much as it was trading just 15 years ago…

But while we’re looking at the short-term price moves, let’s not forget about the big picture.

It’s not good to miss the forest while looking at trees.

And the big picture is this:

The USD Index has been declining in recent years, but the reality is that it’s after a very long-term breakout that materialized in early 2015 and that was then verified in the following years. 

U.S. Dollar remains in a structural uptrend

Believe it or not, the USD Index has been in a long-term uptrend since 2008.

Yes, the precious metals sector managed to move higher despite that, as it has other drivers in addition to the USD Index, but please note what happened when the USD Index was launching its 2014-2015 and 2021 rallies. That’s when gold not only stopped rallying, but it actually declined.

The fact that the USD Index moved back to its rising, red support line and at the same time it stopped declining close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement strongly suggests that we’re about to see another sizable upswing – one similar to those that previously triggered big declines in the precious metals sector.

That’s the forest – let’s keep it in mind.

Zooming in reveals that the USD Index keeps on climbing. It’s been rallying since late December, and it’s up in 2026.

The April 2025 bottom held.

Dollar’s next advance may be underway

It looks like we’re seeing the beginning of another big move higher in the value of the U.S. currency.

PMs and miners are down today, but nothing extraordinary YET.

As the geopolitically-driven safe-haven buying fades, the market is likely to look back at the USD Index – and PMs and miners would be likely to decline. Silver has a unique fundamental situation, but it’s unlikely to break higher now if the CME keeps raising margins for silver futures.