Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases from fresh 3-week high, retains its positive bias

XAU/USD Current price: $4,115.53

• A 4-week average US ADP Employment Change report revived hopes for a December rate cut.
• The US federal government is likely to reopen before the end of the week.
• XAU/USD loses its bullish strength, but the risk remains skewed to the upside.

Gold price advanced towards $4,150, its highest in three weeks, before trimming early gains and stabilizing in the $4,110 area. Financial markets are in a wait-and-see mode amid hopes the United States (US) government will soon reopen, which puts some intraday pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Other than that, a bank holiday in the US, due to Veterans’ Day, exacerbates the intraday quietness.

On the data front, the United Kingdom (UK) and the US published weak employment data, fueling bets on upcoming rate cuts in both countries. On the one hand, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment rate surged to 5% in the three months to September, higher than the previous 4.8% and worse than the anticipated 4.9%. Other than that, Employment Change in the same period indicated 22,000 fewer active workers, vs the previous 91,000 increase.

In the US, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) released a new 4-week average on Employment Change, which showed that in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the benchmark interest rate when it met in October, but Chair Jerome Powell noted that a December cut should not be taken for granted. The ADP figures surely revive hopes for an upcoming cut before the end of the year. Still, the focus remains on the federal government reopening and the release of official data.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD's current retracement does not affect the positive bias. In the 4-hour chart, the pair stands above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising above the 100 and 200 SMAs, underscoring the bullish momentum. The 100-period SMA still trends lower as the 200-period SMA grinds higher, a mixed slope that slightly tempers the near-term impulse. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its 100 line and ticks higher, indicating sustained buying pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.47, easing from overbought yet maintaining a positive tone.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish scope. The 20-day SMA holds above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, while the longer gauges continue to rise. The 20-day SMA at $4,082.05 offers nearby dynamic support. In the meantime, the Momentum indicator remains below 100 and edges higher, indicating a fading bearish pressure, while the RSI hovers around 58, modestly above the midline and consistent with a positive bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)