Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD conquers the $4,700 mark on Trump’s threats

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,750

US President Donald Trump keeps threatening tariffs to achieve his goals.
The US will release updates to the Gross Domestic Product and PCE Price Index on Wednesday.
XAU/USD is extremely overbought, but risk aversion favors higher highs ahead.

Spot Gold trades north of $4,750 on Tuesday, clinching yet another record high as risk aversion continues to drive financial markets. The run to safety was once again triggered by the United States (US) President Donald Trump, who keeps battling the world to Make America Great Again.

Not happy with the monetary policy, President Trump has gone above and beyond to influence the Federal Reserve (Fed). His desire to lower interest rates further has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence and heightened uncertainty. In the meantime, Chair Jerome Powell’s mandate ends in May, and his replacement has been a big question mark that the White House promises to answer soon, but never does.

Trump is also unhappy with how the world “unfairly” treats America. Widespread tariffs announced in 2025 were just the tip of the iceberg, and he did not stop them from having better trade deals. He is now using levies as a weapon to achieve other goals.

On the one hand, he threatened tariffs on several Nordic countries to force Denmark into selling Greenland to the US. His latest threats fell into France, as the government's doubts about joining Trump’s “Board of Peace,” meant to supervise the next phase of the Gaza peace plan. At this point, not even Israel has confirmed his participation, but indeed, Trump did not refrain from inviting even the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

Source: Image generated by AI, shared by US President Trump in Truth Social

As US President Trump makes announcements, uncertainty piles up, forcing investors away from high-yielding assets and straight into Gold.

Meanwhile, market participants await clues about the US economic health. The country will release on Wednesday updated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures from October and November. PCE inflation is closely watched, as is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. However, these old figures have lost relevance and may have a limited impact on the USD, overshadowed by the ongoing war between President Trump and Chair Powell.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is overextended but still bullish. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbing above the 100- and 200-period SMAs. The 20-period SMA offers dynamic support at $4,653.79, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,506.90 and the 200-period SMA at $4,411.78. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator maintains its bullish slope at 73, while the Momentum indicator also aims firmly higher at extremes, without signs of upward exhaustion.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades far above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA accelerating north above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, while providing support at $4,497. At the same time, the RSI indicator and the Momentum indicator keep heading firmly north, despite being at extreme levels, hinting at higher highs ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.