Gold Price Forecast: Next target comes at $4,250

Gold is seeing its recent strong rebound lose some impulse on Thursday, following a failed attempt to advance north of the $4,160 mark per troy ounce. The move higher comes as the US Dollar (USD) loses some steam again, even though US Treasury yields are trying to rebound across the curve.

Bigger picture, the yellow metal remains firmly on track for a fourth consecutive monthly advance, extending the strong October move that briefly had markets eyeing the $4,400 region. Ongoing geopolitical unease and a steady drip of speculation around more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have given bulls plenty of reasons to stay engaged.

Of course, if the global mood brightens, especially if peace-talk headlines around Russia and Ukraine pick up, some of gold’s safe-haven bid could soften. But so far, any dips have been quickly met with demand.

Market pricing still favours the bullish case: Traders continue to bet the Fed could cut rates again at its December 10 meeting, with nearly a 80% probability priced in. Further out, markets are expecting close to 86 basis points of easing by the end of 2026, which is pretty supportive for non-yielding assets like bullion.

What’s next?

Heading into the Thanksgiving slowdown, the precious metal might just take a breather and hold its ground around the $4,150–$4,170 pocket. Liquidity usually dries up a bit as US desks switch into holiday mode, so we may see a quieter stretch where traders simply protect recent gains.

That said, the direction of travel still hinges on a few familiar drivers. If market chatter around a December Fed cut keeps growing, and policymakers don’t push back too hard, Gold should stay well supported. Any sign that inflation is cooling or the labour market is softening would only reinforce that dovish bias.

At the same time, the metal will stay sensitive to the global mood. A sudden improvement in risk appetite or positive headlines around Russia-Ukraine diplomacy could take some shine off safe-haven demand. Not a trend killer, but enough to make the rally feel a little heavier.

So in the near term, the yellow metal probably doesn’t need fresh drama to keep edging higher. As long as the Greenback struggles to attract buyers and geopolitical tensions rumble in the background, the path of least resistance still looks tilted to the upside, even if progress is a bit more of a slow, steady climb than a runaway breakout.

Technically speaking

If bulls keep control, the first test comes at the November high of $4,245 (November 13). Clear that, and attention quickly shifts to the real prize: The record peak at $4,380 (October 17) could be a much tougher one to crack.

But if momentum fades and sellers step back in, there’s a decent safety net not far below. The 55-day SMA at $3,987 should act as the first line of defence, with additional support at the weekly low of $3,886 (October 28). A deeper slide would put the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May–October rally at $3,750 back into view.

For now though, the underlying tone remains constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pushing past 59, suggesting buyers still have energy to burn, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 19 implies the broader uptrend is gradually firming up.