Gold Price Forecast: Further consolidation is not ruled out

Gold extends its choppy performance at the beginning of the week, clocking acceptable gains and leaving behind two daily declines in a row. The precious metal, however, failed to retest or surpass the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce.

On a monthly basis, the yellow metal remains on track to clinch its fourth consecutive advance following October’s all-time peaks near the $4,400 mark.

The current move higher in the precious metal comes amid humble gains in the US Dollar (USD), while a marginal bounce in US Treasury yields in the short end of the curve contrasts with declines in the belly and the long end.

Momentum has also been underpinned by growing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver additional interest rate cuts. On the latter, markets place around a 67% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 gathering, while implied rates see nearly 92 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.

Plotting against sustainable gains in bullion, however, remains the occasional improvement in the risk sentiment along with hopes of peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine front.

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on leading US fundamentals, such as Producer Prices and Retail Sales, all due on November 25 ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday on November 27.

Gold’s short-term technical outlook

Further advances may see the November high of $4,245 (November 13) revisited prior to the all-time high at $4,380 (October 17).

If sellers take control, there is provisional contention at the 55-day SMA at $3,958 ahead of the weekly trough of $3,886 (October 28) and the 50% Fibo retracement of the May-October rally at $3,750.

Momentum indicators are optimistic: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 55 level, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 19 indicates a modestly strong trend.