Gold Price Forecast: Constructive outlook remains in place

Gold regains composure, leaves behind Tuesday’s slight pullback, and revisits the area beyond the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday.

The resurgence of the buying interest comes on the back of a deeper retracement in the US Dollar, which motivates the US Dollar Index (DXY) to retreat to levels last visited in late October below its key 99.00 support.

The precious metal’s upside momentum is also propped up by declining US Treasury yields across the spectrum, all surrounded by rising bets for another 25 basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its next week’s gathering.

Reinforcing the above, the ADP report showed US private employers trimming 32K jobs in November, from a 47K gain reported in the previous month.

If you zoom out a bit, the bigger picture still looks friendly for the precious metal. Indeed, Gold just wrapped up its fourth monthly gain in a row in November, finally shaking off that late-August slump near $3,300. Add persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing talk of more Fed cuts, and investors have plenty of reasons to keep buying dips.

Sure, sentiment could shift if global risk appetite suddenly improves, especially if headlines around Russia-Ukraine peace talks start to feel real. That could strip away some of the metal’s safe-haven shine. But so far, every pullback has been met with eager buyers, and that tells you a lot about the underlying demand.

Rate expectations are still a major tailwind as well. Markets continue to price in further Fed easing, with almost 88 basis points of cuts expected by late 2026, a supportive backdrop for a non-yielding asset like gold.

Technical landscape

The continuation of the upside bias could see the December high of $4,264 (December 1) revisited in the near term, while a surpass of this region should expose a move to the all-time peak at $4,380 (October 17), just ahead of the Fibonacci extension of the 2024-2025 rally at $4,437.

On the other hand, the 55-day SMA at $4,027 offers interim contention prior to the weekly support at $3,997 (November 18) and the October base at $3,886 (October 28). The loss of the latter exposes a potential decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May–October rally at $3,750.

Finally, momentum indicators still favour extra gains: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) deflates somewhat to around 61, indicating that there is still room for extra advances. In addition, the Average Directional Index (ADX) orbiting around 21 points to a trend that seems to be slowly gathering steam.

What’s next?

The near-term path still comes down to the familiar trio: The Fed, the US data pulse, and the state of global nerves. Any signs that the Fed is leaning more dovish, or that the US labour market is cooling further, would keep the metal well supported. And unless geopolitical risks fade decisively, investors won’t need fresh conflict to justify holding some insurance.

As long as the Greenback struggles to find meaningful traction, Gold should retain an upward bias, perhaps not a surge, but a steady grind higher.

Bottom line

Gold’s tone remains bullish. Buyers are still driving the market, dips remain attractive, and the macro backdrop: Softer US Dollar, potential Fed easing, and lingering geopolitical tension, is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It does not seem likely that markets are gearing up for fireworks, but the path of least resistance still looks higher, and pullbacks are more opportunity than warning sign for now.