Gold Price Forecast: Bounce could be short-lived

Gold is currently trading at $1,293, having hit a low of $1,285 earlier this week.

The bullish divergence of the 4-hour chart relative strength index suggests scope for a further rise to $1,300. The bounce, however, could be short-lived, as the 50-candle MA is about to cross the 200-candle MA from above.

Further, the RSI on the daily chart is biased bearish below 50.00. The 5- and 10-day MAs continue to trend south, indicating a bearish setup and the rising channel breakdown, confirmed on March. 28, is still valid.

What's more, the last week's bearish outside reversal candle indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside. With that bearish candlestick, the yellow metal established a lower high at $1,324.

All-in-all, prices appear on track to test the 100-day M support, currently at $1,282.39. A close below that level would bolster the already bearish technical setup and open the doors to $1,276 (Jan. 4 low).

Gold may close below the 100-day MA today if the US ADP and ISM non-manufacturing numbers put a bid under the US dollar with an above-forecast print.

A weaker-than-expected release, however, could bode well for the yellow metal. That said, the immediate bearish outlook would be neutralized only if prices close today above the 10-day MA, currently at $1,302.

A weekly close above $1,324 is needed to confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change. However, with the US and China closing on a trade deal and global PMIs hinting at a revival of the global industrial cycle, the investors are unlikely to pour money into the zero-yielding safe-haven metal.

4-hour chart

Daily chart