Gold Price Forecast: Acceptance above $4,130 is critical for XAU/USD buyers

Gold is flirting with the $4,150 barrier early Tuesday, sitting at the highest level in three months. The focus now turns to the US ADP weekly jobs report amid a potential end to the government shutdown.  

Gold looks to US ADP Employment Change data

Gold has been on a roll higher, gaining over 3% so far this week, on hopes that the US government reopening would imply resumption of the economic data publications, which could help markets confirm a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Markets are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of the Fed lowering rates next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Last week’s downbeat US data ramped up bets for another cut by the turn of the year. The University of Michigan (UoM) showed on Friday that the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3 in early November, the lowest in nearly three-and-a-half years.

Meanwhile, the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.

Amid ground labor market concerns and the disinflationary trend, markets believe that the missed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for September and the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) could help seal in a December rate reduction.

This narrative is boding well for Gold optimists even as US Treasury bond yields and stocks ride the wave higher of the US shutdown nearing an end.

 With US bond markets closed on Tuesday in observance of Veterans Day, all eyes are on the weekly US private sector Employment Change (4-week average) data, which could provide fresh light on the health of the labor market.

The sentiment on Wall Street will also be closely monitored for fresh trading incentives in Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis

As observed on the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks firm above the midline, currently near 60, suggesting that buyers will likely retain control in the near term.

Acceptance above $4,129, the 23.6%  Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19, is critical on a daily candlestick closing basis to unleash further upside.

The next relevant topside target is seen at the $4,200 round level, above which a fresh uptrend will initiate toward the record high of $4,382.

On the downside, the initial support is located at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,086, below which the $4,050 psychological level will come into play.

The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at $3,973, the 38.2% Fibo level of the same advance.