Gold hovers near record highs as markets await US core PCE inflation data

Gold (XAUUSD) remains steady as markets shift focus to upcoming U.S. inflation data. With no significant economic releases this week, markets are closely watching Friday’s core PCE inflation reading. This release is expected to shape expectations for future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, warning of upside inflation risks. The speech left markets unclear about the extent and timing of any potential easing. As a result, gold continues to consolidate near recent highs, supported by macro risks and technical strength.

Gold holds steady as markets eye core PCE inflation for Fed cues

Gold prices continue to show strength as investors position for policy easing and rising macro risks. Markets are focused on Friday’s core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. In the absence of major economic releases, attention has therefore shifted to this key inflation report to evaluate the Fed’s direction. This reflects persistent doubts regarding both the pace and depth of upcoming rate reductions.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone during his speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. He warned that inflation risks are rising, even as the job market shows signs of softening. Powell’s comments highlight the Fed’s ongoing challenge in addressing both inflation pressures and labor market risks. Despite offering limited guidance on the path of rate cuts, the probability of an October rate cut increased. Following his remarks, CME FedWatch data now assigns a 92% probability to a rate cut, up from 89.8% prior.

Additionally, the FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index climbed back into hawkish territory, hovering near the 102.00 level. This change, combined with a modest rebound in the US Dollar, has placed a short-term ceiling on gold prices. Despite the rebound, the Dollar’s strength remains uncertain with growing concern over a possible U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, markets largely dismissed the mixed PMI data. The S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 53.6 in September from 54.6 in August, pointing to softer economic momentum.

Gold extends uptrend with consistent consolidation and breakout formations

The gold chart below shows multiple triangle breakouts, indicating sustained upward momentum. Notably, these formations have served as consistent continuation signals over the past 18 months, strengthening the broader uptrend. Each triangle represents a consolidation phase within the bullish cycle, followed by decisive breakouts to higher levels. Gold has repeatedly paused within well-structured patterns, only to resume its uptrend with renewed strength.

Over time, gold has developed three major triangle structures between early 2024 and late 2025, each pointing to steady accumulation and consistent buying interest. The initial formation appeared between April and June 2024, leading to a breakout in July. Subsequently, another triangle pattern followed later in 2024 and broke to the upside in early 2025. The most recent triangle structure, completed in 2025, broke decisively in mid-September, sending gold sharply above $3,700.

Consequently, each breakout was followed by a strong continuation, reinforcing the reliability of the pattern. An ascending trendline links the breakout zones, providing a strong base for gold’s broader uptrend. Notably, this rising level has consistently held, guiding gold’s price action throughout the uptrend. Consistent triangle formations and breakouts along this rising base reinforce the reliability of the technical setup. Additionally, rising volume after each breakout confirms the strength behind the moves. Taken as a whole, these signals validate the strength of the uptrend and point to further upside potential.

Gold price outlook: Bullish setup intact ahead of core PCE inflation data

Gold’s uptrend is supported by elevated macro risks and confirmed breakout patterns. Markets await Friday’s core PCE report for fresh policy cues as Powell’s remarks offer limited clarity. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade near highs, with inflation pressures and global tensions sustaining demand. Furthermore, the series of bullish triangle breakouts reinforces the broader uptrend, signaling continued upside potential.

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