Gold falls even as the Dollar and yields drop

At the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is down 0.2 percent at 101.97, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.00 percent, down from 5.04 percent at Wednesday's close, and crude oil is down more than 1 percent. All three usually help gold. December gold futures trade near $4,033 anyway, and the GLD ETF is down 1.4 percent. Silver fell to $52.03, a new 2026 low, and the GDXJ, the ETF for junior mining stocks, is down 3.3 percent.

When gold falls on a day that should support it, the sellers are in control. In my view, this is bearish information.

The Fed held, and the data didn't surprise

The Fed kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, as both wanted a quarter-point hike. Chair Warsh didn't commit to a December move: "I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis." Fed funds futures still price about an 80 percent chance of a December hike.

Today's data didn't change this picture. The US economy grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, after 2.2 percent in the second, and above the 3.2 percent that economists expected. The September PCE data came in line with forecasts: core prices rose 0.3 percent in the month and 3.1 percent from a year earlier, up from 3.0 percent in August.

In Europe, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.5 percent, with euro area inflation at 3.8 percent in September, and Christine Lagarde announced that she will step down on February 7, 2027, about nine months before her term ends.

Gold reversed near the 38.2% retracement

Gold's rebound didn't last.

On Wednesday, December gold futures rose as high as $4,097.20, slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, and then they reversed. Today, gold is about $64 below Wednesday's high. The head-and-shoulders top on the above chart was completed, and its downside target is about $3,920.

The Dollar is down, and Gold is down too

The USD Index is giving gold some room today.

The USD Index slipped to 101.97, after closing at 102.19 on Wednesday, and it's still close to its 2026 high. During the October pullback, the index held above its previous highs, which turned into support.

The gold-USD link is traditionally negative, so a lower dollar should lift gold. Lower bond yields should help too, as they reduce the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. Today, gold is falling despite both.

Silver at a new 2026 low

Silver is leading the way down again.

Silver price fell to $52.03 today, a new 2026 low and the lowest level for the December contract since November 2025. The SLV ETF is down 3.9 percent, almost three times as much as the GLD.

On Monday, I wrote: "Two daily closes below the lows are in, and a third one would confirm the breakdown." Monday's close was the third one, and today, silver is at new lows.

On October 8, I wrote: "The move below $50 is now a very likely outcome in my view." Silver closed at $59.42 that day. Since then, silver has fallen 11.9 percent, and gold 3.0 percent.

The miners turn lower

The miners rallied for three days, and today, they're giving back a big part of the rebound.

The GDXJ rose from $99.35 on Friday to $104.42 on Wednesday. Today, it's near $101, down 3.3 percent, while the GLD is down 1.4 percent.

On Monday, I also wrote: "Until the miners start rising on gold's down days, or at least falling less than gold, I think the decline in the sector has further to go." Today is one of gold's down days, and the junior miners are falling more than twice as fast as gold.

Oil and Iran

Oil is lower on hopes for talks with Iran.

Crude oil is down 1.3 percent today, with December WTI near $101.40 and December Brent near $114.20. On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to revive peace talks. President Trump said that he approved the outreach, and he described it as help with medical supplies. According to the Journal, he also told Gulf allies to prepare for a brief, intense campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterms. Iran hasn't publicly replied to the letter yet.

Technically, crude oil paused at its declining resistance line, and last week's close of $103.27 was WTI's third highest weekly close of this year. For gold, the oil link runs through rates, as higher oil means more inflation and higher rates. Today, oil is down, and gold is down with it.

Stocks

Stocks are lower too, led by tech.

The S&P 500 is down 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq Composite 1.5 percent, after Alphabet fell 12.8 percent on its results. Silver reacts to the stock market more than gold does, and today, the SLV is down more than twice as much as the Nasdaq Composite.

Where this leaves us

The Fed held, the data came in line with expectations, and the dollar, yields, and oil are lower. Gold is down anyway, silver is at a new 2026 low, and the junior miners are falling more than twice as fast as gold. In my view, the decline in the precious metals sector has further to go.

Gold had reasons to rally today, and it took none of them.