Global stocks rose today as a series of goodwill messages between the United States and China continued. In a statement to reporters yesterday, Donald Trump said that he was open to the idea of an interim trade deal with China. Before that, he had agreed to postpone the tariffs that were to go into effect on October 1 to October 15 as China celebrates its 70th anniversary as well as their 7-day golden week during that month. Today, China responded by announcing that it would exempt some US pork and soybeans from tariffs. This is significant news as American farmers have been the biggest casualties of the trade war. Investors appear to believe that a breakthrough between the two countries could be possible in the upcoming meetings.
The euro strengthened against the USD after the EU released the trade numbers for July. In the month, the region’s trade surplus increased to EUR 24.8 billion, which will be higher than the previous EUR 20.6 billion. In the month, labour costs increased by 2.70%, which was higher than the previous 2.50%. Wages also increased by 2.70%. Meanwhile, in Spain, the headline CPI declined by -0.1% while the HICP increased slightly by 0.4%. In Germany, the headline CPI increased by 0.3%, which was lower than the previous 0.5%. In the UK, the sterling rose to a 2-month high as investors continued to believe that a no-deal Brexit might not happen. This was after the house speaker vowed to allow parliament to do whatever it took to stop Johnson’s no deal Brexit. It was also reported that Democratic Unionist party was ready to shift its red lines and support a deal that created a regulatory border between North Ireland and Britain.
The US dollar rose slightly after the US released retail sales data for the month of August. In the month, retail sales rose by a monthly rate of 0.4%, which was better than the expected 0.2% but lower than the previous month’s increase of 0.8%. On an annualized basis, retail sales rose by 4.10%, which was better than the previous month’s 3.45%. On the negative side, the core retail sales declined by -0.6% in August. The export price index declined by -1.4% while the import price index declined by -2.0%.
The GBP/USD pair soared today to a high of 1.2475, which was the highest level since July 26. On the four-hour chart, the price was above the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The RSI has moved to above the overbought level of 70 while the ADX has eased to the current level of 32. The pair is also between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair will likely continue with this trend to possibly test the resistance level of 1.2500, which is also along the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
The GBP/CHF pair continued the rally that was started on August 9 when the pair made a double bottom pattern. Since then, the pair has moved from a low of 1.1675 to today’s high of 1.1.2318, which was the highest level since July 27. On the four-hour chart, the price is above the important support shown in blue below. The price is also above the 7-day and 14-day moving averages while the RSI has reached the overbought level. The pair will likely continue moving higher to test the important support of 1.2350.
The EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1110 as investors reacted to positive data from the European Union. The pair then pared those gains slightly after the US released its retail sales. The pair is now trading at 1.1085 as it tries to form a bearish evening star pattern. The price is along the 14-day moving averages and slightly below the 7-day average. The RSI has started moving lower from the overbought position it was earlier today. The pair will likely continue moving lower in the American session.
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