Weekly analysis: NASDAQ, Gold, and AUD/USD with professional risk management [Video]

This analysis integrates recent macroeconomic fundamentals with a professional risk management methodology applied to NASDAQ, gold, and AUDUSD. The objective is to provide a clear roadmap for the week, with probable scenarios, Elliott Wave structures, and practical tools to protect capital, both in proprietary accounts and funded accounts.

The combination of macroeconomic context, price structures, and rigorous risk control enables anticipation of risk market movements and positioning with a solid statistical edge.

Macroeconomic Context: Why Risk Markets Are Bullish

Current Fundamental Factors

The starting point of this analysis lies in the macroeconomic environment:

1. Inflation below expectations
2. Negative employment revision, with adjustment showing approximately one million fewer jobs than previously estimated
3. Interest rates in the adjustment process after remaining excessively high for economic reality

Implications for Risk Markets

This environment suggests the monetary tightening cycle has reached an exhaustion phase. Operational implications generate a bullish bias in:

• Equity indices such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
• Fixed income instruments like bond ETFs (example: TLT)
• Safe-haven assets, adjusting to the new cost of capital, such as gold

This general framework enables alignment with the market's main flow. Rather than impulsively seeking "tops," the professional approach focuses on locating pullback zones where risk is limited and upside potentialis  significant.

The Importance of an Advanced Risk Calculator

Why Risk Precision Is Critical

Before diving into specific instruments, understanding the relevance of measuring risk with mathematical precision is crucial.

Essential Functions of a Risk Calculator

A specialized risk calculator enables:

1. Define Position Size Based On:

• Account type (proprietary or funded)
• Available capital
• Risk percentage per trade

2. Calculate With Exactitude:

• Amount at risk per trade
• Value per point/pip according to standard, mini, or micro lot
• Number of contracts that can be opened without violating drawdown limits

3. Visualize:

• Number of consecutive losing trades necessary to exhaust permitted drawdown

Practical Example

$20,000 USD funded account with 8% maximum drawdown:

• Total loss margin: $1,600 USD
• By entering trade data (entry, stop loss, lot type), the calculator shows:
  
• • Optimal position size
  • Maximum potential loss if stop is executed
  • Risk units and risk/reward ratio

This approach avoids excessive positions that bring the account close to loss with a few negative trades. The tool not only saves time but also reduces the margin for human error in the system's statistical survival.

Risk Management in Proprietary and Funded Accounts

Differences and Unified Principles

The key difference between proprietary and funded accounts lies in the strict drawdown rules. However, methodology can maintain a unified principle:

Fundamental Principles:

1. Define conservative risk per trade (between 0.25% and 0.5% of capital)
2. Calculate position size based on the technical stop, not the random lot quantity
3. Verify consecutive losing trades necessary to break the account limit

Impact of Risk Percentage

With 0.25% risk:

• Requires several dozen consecutive losing trades to liquidate the account
• Provides a significant psychological cushion
• Allows focus on long-term mathematical expectancy

With 2% or more risk:

• Only 4 consecutive losing trades can eliminate a funded account
• Extreme psychological pressure
• Risk of accelerated capital destruction

Psychological Advantage:

Understanding these numbers provides enormous psychological advantage: focus shifts from "quick profit" toward optimizing long-term mathematical expectancy, protecting the capital curve.

Elliott Wave Analysis on AUDUSD: Finding the Decision Zone

Structural Setup

The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) presents one of the week's most interesting configurations. The focus centers on locating a new low serving as a rejection point for a bullish wave 3.

Key Technical Elements to Monitor

1. Rejection Signals at Support:

• Formation of candles with small bodies and relevant shadows
• Indication of rejection at the critical support zone

2. MACD Divergences:

• Price marks new low
• The indicator doesn't confirm bearish strength
• Signal of downward movement exhaustion

3. Liquidity Behavior:

• Evaluation of selling absorption at the key level
• Confirmation of institutional buying interest

Operational Strategy

By identifying these elements, the decision point becomes clearly defined:

Advantages of this setup:

• Very tight stop loss on the other side of the key level
• Target aligned with wave 3 projection
• Distance to target is multiple times the stop size

Result: Transformation of apparent weakness zone into entry opportunity with positive asymmetry—small risk and broad potential profit.

NASDAQ: Validating Wave 2 Before the Major Wave 3

Current Market Structure

NASDAQ is in a corrective wave 2 phase within a larger bullish context. The main plan consists of:

1. Validate wave 2 completion
2. Prepare entry to capture beginning of impulsive wave 3

Critical Consideration: Liquidity on Holidays

Characteristics of U.S. holidays:

• Low institutional liquidity
• Unreliable indicator data
• Flat liquidity line (banks closed)
• Erratic movements and stops easily swept

Operational priority: PATIENCE

Avoid:

• Hasty entries in the environment without a relevant institutional volume
• Trades in markets without "Big Money" participation

Wait For:

• Return of institutional liquidity
• Confirmation if the market supports the bullish scenario

Post-Liquidity Operational Options

Once institutional liquidity returns:

Option 1: Enter immediately if structure confirms bullish turn

Option 2: Wait for additional support test if wave 2 doesn't show clear exhaustion signals

This discipline prevents typical losses from operating in slow market environments without institutional participation.

Gold: Bullish, But With Slower Pace of Ascent

Recent Price Evolution

Gold has experienced:

1. Previous phase: Strong revaluation during the last part of the previous year and the beginning of the current year
2. Recent adjustment: Bearish correction as confidence in the dollar began recovering

Current Scenario

Structural characteristics:

• Underlying bullish structure is coherent with interest rate adjustment
• Capital repositioning toward safe-haven assets
• Slower ascent pace than in the previous leg
• Accumulation and gradual advance phase

Operational Implications

Recommended approach:

1. Avoid unrealistic expectations of continuous vertical movements
2. Focus on sustained trend legs with moderate pullbacks, allowing re-entries
3. Use Fibonacci projection levels to estimate realistic targets toward the previous high
4. Assumean  extended period to reach major targets

Approach benefit: Adaptation of expectation management, avoiding the typical frustration of those chasing extreme impulses in an environment that has changed dynamics.

Trading Psychology: Patience, Low Risk, and Plan Clarity

Current Psychological Challenges

The operating environment presents:

• Low liquidity days induce overtrading
• Headline news about employment, inflation, and central banks
• FOMO pressure (fear of missing an important move)

Professional Environment Management

Key principles for psychological management:

1. Maintain Constant and Low Risk

• Apply a conservative percentage even when the scenario seems highly favorable
• Avoid increasing risk due to excessive optimism

2. Accept Strategic Inactivity

• Some days, the best trade is not trading
• Especially when institutional liquidity is insufficient

3. Have a Written Plan for Each Instrument

Plan components (AUDUSD, NASDAQ, Gold):

• Clearly defined potential entry zone
• Clear invalidation level (stop loss)
• Targets aligned with wave count and Fibonacci projections

Result: Decision-making with serenity, preventing the moment's emotion from destroying strategic logic.

Operational Conclusions

Opportunity Synthesis

The current context combines:

Favorable fundamentals:

• Inflation under control
• Interest rate adjustment
• Employment data revision

Technical structures:

• Potential bullish wave 3s in NASDAQ, gold, and AUDUSD
• High-probability setups forming

Risk Management Framework

Essential tools:

• Advanced risk calculator
• Precise position sizing
• Risk unit monitoring

Operational objectives:

• Participate in bullish movements
• Protect capital through technical stops
• Maximize risk/reward ratio

Execution Principles

Operational discipline:

1. Wait for structure confirmation before entering
2. Respect low liquidity environments, avoiding overtrading
3. Maintain consistently low risk (0.25%-0.5%)
4. Followthe  written plan, not emotional impulses

Professional trading isn't based on perfect predictions but on systematic risk management, patience to wait for high-probability setups, and discipline to execute the plan without emotional deviations.